Daniel Bonevac’s Bayesian Argument for Miracles
I was privileged to be able to sit in on some of a private virtual Q&A with Christian philosopher Daniel Bonevac regarding his peer-reviewed paper “The Argument from Miracles,” Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Religion 3 (2011), pp. 16-40. Many...Bayesian Analysis of the Barkasi-Sant’Anna Defense of Naive Memory Realism
Last month I launched my three-part series on analyzing peer-reviewed philosophy papers with my Bayesian Analysis of Faria Costa’s Theory of Group Agency, where I explain my process and how I selected the articles for review. I followed that with my Bayesian...Bayesian Analysis of Faria Costa’s Theory of Group Agency
Last September I ran a project testing the merits of peer-reviewed history articles, by selecting three articles at random and analyzing their methodology and its underlying Bayesian logic (because, really, all sound epistemic reasoning is Bayesian: see A Bayesian...The Jesus Chronicles: Three Things People Get Wrong about Probability
Lately I’ve seen a flurry of repeated mistakes in reasoning about probability. I realized a primer is needed to correct some people so they can stop making those mistakes (assuming you care about not making mistakes; an alarming number of people don’t, but...A Bayesian Analysis of the Winling-Michney Thesis on Redlining
Last month I began a three-part series with A Bayesian Analysis of Susannah Rees’s Ishtar-in-the-Manosphere Thesis and A Bayesian Analysis of Kate Loveman’s Pepys Diary Thesis. Today I will conclude with the third random selection from my test set: LaDale C....A Bayesian Analysis of Kate Loveman’s Pepys Diary Thesis
Last week I began a three-part series with A Bayesian Analysis of Susannah Rees’s Ishtar-in-the-Manosphere Thesis. Today I will continue with the second random selection from my test set, Kate Loveman’s “Women and the History of Samuel Pepys’s...A Bayesian Analysis of Susannah Rees’s Ishtar-in-the-Manosphere Thesis
As an ongoing project I’ve selected three articles at random from among credible open-source journals in order to analyze their arguments in a way that makes clear their Bayesian structure, and what grasping this about them can tell us about sound historical...Why the Fine Tuning Argument Proves God Does Not Exist
In Bayesian Counter-Apologetics I outlined why the Fine Tuning Argument actually disproves the existence of God. And I didn’t make that up. What I outline there was independently corroborated twice by the peer-reviewed research of multiple experts (see On the...Doing the Math: Historicity of Jesus Edition
I am a Bayesian epistemologist. And in line with the independent findings of the philosopher of history Aviezer Tucker, I developed and applied under peer review a way to model historical reasoning with Bayes’ Theorem (method, in Proving History; application, in...How to Correctly Employ Bayesian Probabilities to Describe Historical Reasoning (Jesus Edition)
I recently did a quick forty minute debate on the historicity of Jesus with Canadian Catholic (with James Is Tired capably moderating), which was remarkably content-rich for such a truncated timeline. The overall takeaway was that Canadian Catholic wasn’t...Jesus and the Problem of the Fraudulent Reference Class
Several students and patrons have lately asked me a similar question. Apparently the new fad is for Christians to go around insisting Jesus is so historically unique that he cannot be subsumed under any other reference class by which to estimate any prior odds on any...Crank Bayesianism: William Lane Craig Edition
A patron asked me to evaluate a video by TMM titled “WLC Misunderstands Hume’s Rejection of Miracles,” in which the host critiques William Lane Craig’s “rebuttal” to David Hume’s argument against miracles—because...The Principle of Indifference
The Principle of Indifference is important for Bayesian reasoning, and hence for Bayesian epistemology—and hence for epistemology, full stop. Yet it has many critics. The common mistake they all make, is similar to the mistake all philosophers make when they...“What Did Josephus Mean by That?” A Case Study in the Relationship between Evidence and Probability
I recently engaged a friendly debate with Dennis MacDonald on the MythVision podcast regarding the historicity of Jesus. Much of which was the usual stuff expected of a serious, expert, secular discussion of that question (follow the link to watch). I might blog about...Advice on Probabilistic Reasoning
The most important advice you could ever get for becoming a reliable critical thinker are the following three tips, each of which depends on probabilistic reasoning. You might want to take my online course in Critical Thinking for the 21st Century to really dive into...Get Dr. Carrier’s Latest!
About the Author
Richard Carrier is the author of many books and numerous articles online and in print. His avid readers span the world from Hong Kong to Poland. With a Ph.D. in ancient history from Columbia University, he specializes in the modern philosophy of naturalism and humanism, and the origins of Christianity and the intellectual history of Greece and Rome, with particular expertise in ancient philosophy, science and technology. He is also a noted defender of scientific and moral realism, Bayesian reasoning, and historical methods.
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