Previously I summarized why I am not convinced by Nina Livesey’s thesis, in her new study The Letters of Paul, that all his letters were forged in the second century (Are Paul and His Letters a Second Century Fabrication?). There I already summarized why. But last time I provided more detail on why I am not convinced by arguments Paul did not exist (see Can We Doubt Paul Existed?). Now as promised this time I will provide more detail on why I am not convinced the core six letters of Paul were forged. And that means Romans, Galatians, Philippians, 1 Thessalonians, and 1 & 2 Corinthians. As for the other letters, I have been convinced Philemon is probably fake, and scholars generally agree all the rest are. Philemon is particularly instructive because the evidence for it being a fake school-exercise style epistle (the very thing Livesey argues the others are) is actually good. Yet none of that evidence exists for the other six.
Do These Letters Even Make Sense as 2nd Century Inventions?
Contrary to what Livesey and others have said, the answer is “No.” First, the core six letters cannot be written by Marcion because even his versions of them contain too many things he would not put in them, and they lack too many things he would put in them. For example, they are full of early-high-Christology that places God or Jesus in the position of Marcion’s Demiurge (and credits to God’s righteous punishment or Satan’s avarice everything Marcion credited to the Demiurge), directly contradicting Marcion’s entire theology (for scholarship see The Idea That Christianity Began with a High Christology). Whereas Marcion would want to make Paul advance Marcion’s anti-demiurge (and anti-Yahweh) rhetoric, especially because it challenges the competing Jewish Christianity Marcion is supposed to be against (for more examples of what I mean, see comment).
I made other points like this in my original summary. For example:
2 Thessalonians was written to emulate 1 Thessalonians yet shows no knowledge of the interpolation at 1 Thess. 2:14–16 (which in turn assumes the Jewish War is past), yet that is in Marcion’s edition of 1 Thessalonians. So that interpolation entered the first letter before Marcion, which means neither 1 nor 2 Thessalonians can have been composed by Marcion. Which eliminates the entire thesis that he wrote the others, because stylistically the author of 1 Thessalonians wrote the others.
One can adduce many more examples.
This is why previous forgery theorists could only sustain their view by positing hundreds of interpolations into the existing letters, all with no evidence at all, just the need to remake the evidence to fit the theory. Which is illogical. But the interpolation of 1 Thess. 2:14–16 is a case in point: that is a perfect example of the kind of thing post-war forgers would want to have Paul say. Even if Marcion believed Paul didn’t survive the war (but why—the belief that Paul was killed by Nero is a legend that might not even have existed when Marcion started, or have been anything Marcion would endorse), he would still know how to craft a similar point for Paul that fit that chronology. For example, having Paul predict the destruction of the temple and thus the inevitable obsolescence of the Jewish cult altogether—indeed proving God’s condemnation and thus abandonment of it—would do the same work. “Your entire atonement system doesn’t even exist anymore and was publicly condemned by a conclusive Act of God” is just too rhetorically powerful an argument to leave on the table. Hence the core six letters simply cannot have been written after the war, much like 1 Clement or Hebrews could not (though the case for them is stronger). You can see this in any second century text that ever argues against Jewish Christianity, from the Trypho of Justin to the Epistle of Barnabas: they all cite these obvious facts against it. That looks like second century construction.
The core six letters, by contrast, still reflect a milieu when the temple still stood and traditional Judaism was still a potent opposition, indeed the dominant form of Christianity—a state of play second century Christians did not want to remind anyone of or even grant as true. Remember, but for the Paulines, no such idea would exist. If Marcion was inventing this, the last thing he would do is invent a tradition whereby Christianity was originally Jewish and Paul had to sneak in a distortion of it as a latecomer who never even met Jesus, relying on dubious “visions,” and then struggle to defend that with elaborate and specious apologetics. And then fail—because the Paulines don’t argue Marcion’s position (they support Torah-observant Christianity for Jews and only exempt Gentiles: see below). Galatians is simply never a letter anyone would invent in the second century. Nor Romans. Nor 1 or 2 Corinthians. And Philippians and 1 Thessalonians have their own problems, being just as unintelligible for that milieu for different reasons. Part of the problem for forgery theorists is that they don’t think through how these letters make sense to contrive when they don’t yet exist. Too many of the “reasons” they offer for why anyone might write them as they are are based on the letters’ contents predating their being written. Which is, of course, physically impossible.
Livesey does offer a suggestion here (which she does not fully commit to, provide any evidence for, or even build-out a theory of), that Acts was the first Christian publication and Marcion is reacting to that (p. 89). But that rests on too many ad hoc suppositions to carry any argument to a probability. It also doesn’t really work, e.g. Acts has Peter be the first to receive the Torah-free Gentile mission in a vision from God, which is definitely not in the letters and yet should be if it predated them; and Acts is unintelligible without a prior Gospel (which Livesey rejects any possibility of: pp. 245, 250, etc.). For example, there is then no Roman crucifixion (only the Jews kill Jesus: Acts 2:36, 7:52–53, etc.), Acts refers to the gospel but (without Luke as preface) never explains what it is, and without the preceding Gospel of Luke, what on Earth is then happening in Acts 1 or Acts 2? There’s too much missing context. And on top of all that, why would the forger of the letters grant anything in Acts? If you get to forge whatever you want (and you do), you’d forge a complete repudiation of its entire narrative as fake. There is also, so far as I know, no reference to Marcion ever discussing or knowing about Acts. So, with all that together, this suggestion isn’t even plausible.
The core six have other problems besides. 1 Clement cannot possibly have been written post war, yet references Paul and the Paulines. And both it and the Paulines do not employ any of the tools a later author would if trying to win the same arguments, much less win the arguments taking the front seat in the second century. For example, like 1 Clement, the Pauline author only knows bishops as mere household managers, not authorities (at all, much less to defend that status for them—they are folded under mere bottom-rank “administrators” in Paul’s hierarchy). He also knows nothing of the invention and elevation of “disciples” over apostles in order to defend doctrine that can be assigned their pedigree—that was a second century thing. So their author is unaware of the debates and arguments he is supposed to be winning, rather than undermining.
And so on. I won’t belabor every point here. The overall lesson is that you have to stop and question every claim and argument Livesey and other forgery theorists make by actually thinking through the milieu they are proposing these letters were forged in, and specifically to win—and doing so with the understanding that, per their own theory, none of this stuff even exists yet for forgers to react to.
A pre-war context better explains why Paul is made both to offer no advice relevant to any post-war doctrinal disputes or concerns that would occupy the Gospels or other forged letters and to take for granted states of affairs that no longer existed in the 2nd century (like baptism for the dead, de facto tithing to the Jerusalem community, or the dominance of Jewish Christianity, contrary to its post-war decline), including issues that would be especially rhetorically disadvantageous if forged then, such as Paul’s persistent assumption that the end would come within his lifetime—a problem after the War that Mark tried to “fix” by having Jesus say at least “one” member of that generation would still be around come the end (kicking that can down to the late 1st or early 2nd century), which the last redactor of John had to fix again by having Jesus say he could keep that last man alive indefinitely. By the mid-2nd century no forger would deliberately sell the idea that the end was coming in Paul’s day (see Did the Rapture Already Happen!?). And so on. All the same is true, again, of 1 Clement, which attests Paul and his letters, so that it also fits the early 60s and no later (indeed even more forcefully) corroborates the same for Paul’s letters.
In my last article I already summarized several other flaws in Livesey’s argument: she relies on mis-identifying the genre of the core six Epistles and thus compares them to the wrong things (they are actually inter-organizational doctrinal correspondence in the form of mailed orations to be performed by a proxy, which we have few to no examples to compare as Livesey would need); and she overlooks the fact that what we have are demonstrably edits, not direct copies of the original letters, and forgers don’t compose that way (they just write the letters they want—they don’t write a bunch of letters, then edit and stitch them together haphazardly leaving key material out and including superfluous indicia of their once having been multiple independent letters). Because of all these features and all these letters’ other incongruences with Marcion’s mission, the Pauline dossier had to have been edited and published on its own before Marcion (including Galatians: see my endnote).
Arguments from silence can’t get a different result here, as we have no manuscripts that descend even from Marcion’s edition, much less any editions (or individual publications) prior to that. Every copy we have comes from the late-second-century anti-Marcionite edition (see Three Things to Know about New Testament Manuscripts), which is why we only have collections of them: they are all copies of that collection of them. That cannot signify that the Gospels did not circulate separately as competing documents before Marcion (and Marcion seems aware they were, and thus was not originating the Gospel genre either) or that the Epistles did not.
Again, the Epistles likely only came to be published from Paul’s own traveling dossier of them, not by someone traveling to church after church collecting them. And that publication was maybe a hundred years later, by which time it is doubtful the original destination letters even still existed (indeed even the original churches may have not: Christianity almost died out around the turn of the century and thus had lost all prior history of itself). And even if they did, there is no reason to believe anyone would have credited them. A single letter at a single church, likely by then a copy (since no original is likely to have survived that long), could simply be denounced as fake, or too politically inconvenient to keep. So there is no way to “get at” any earlier version than our anti-Marcionite deluxe edition. But that does not mean there was nothing to get at. Even Marcion’s edition was completely erased. Why should prior editions have had a better chance? The complete loss of Marcion’s edition is not evidence it didn’t exist. Ergo neither is the loss of its exemplars evidence they didn’t exist.
So, given that what we have are double-edited pastiches of some prior dossier, which Marcion cannot have constructed, most of Livesey’s arguments cannot proceed, as they depend on this not being the case. “The evidence is deeply compromised” does not get us to “the evidence is fake.” Indeed, it has the opposite effect: their extremely compromised state undermines any confident conclusion they are fake. What we need is different evidence altogether (like we have for Philemon, the Pastorals, 3 Corinthians, the Paul and Seneca correspondence, Abgar, Barnabas, and so on). And we just don’t have that for the core six. Whereas what we do have all points in the other direction: their ignorance of second century debates, concerns, and circumstances, their mixed-up pastiched condition, the realism of their desperation and tactics and references (and its all being odd for the second century), and other factors, all up the probability of authenticity, not forgery.
Would No Jew Abandon Torah?
One of Livesey’s continuing arguments is itself a non sequitur: that no Jew ever left or changed their faith into something new. Like some kind of reverse anti-semitism, Livesey mytho-gullibly imagines Jews as special and not like every other human being on the planet, and thus anachronistically adopts the premise that Jews “would never” abandon Torah law. Obviously even in antiquity many did—apostates were a thing. And we know many other fringe sects of Judaism abandoned all manner of supposedly central Jewish tenets. Sadducees rejected apocalypticism and resurrection. The Samaritans had their own Bible. Other sects rejected the entire Torah and the entire system of sacrificial atonement (keeping only circumcision), even claiming the Pentateuch was a forgery (Epiphanius, Panarion 18–19). So we cannot say one weird fringe sectarian “wouldn’t” have done this then. But more importantly, anthropologically, we know syncretism works exactly like this: Christianity fits the criteria of a revolution cult (see OHJ, ch. 5, §29), and they always transform their native religion by adapting to it elements of an imperialist occupier’s religion. Abandoning circumcision is an expected innovation here.
The Cargo Cults are the most famous example, but Judaism is itself one: it adopted apocalypticism, demonology, messianism, and resurrection from Persian Zoroastrianism under Persian rule—so what transformations do you imagine might be attempted under Roman rule? The adaptation is always made by natives (not imperialist interlopers, hence we expect Christianity to have been constructed by a Jew) and always involves altering or abandoning the most socially obsolete elements of native cult and replacing them with the most socially popular aspects of the imperialists’ religion. Christianity perfectly fits this anthropological model. Accordingly, it cannot be argued that a Jewish Paul “would not” abandon circumcision, for example. To the contrary, that is precisely the kind of thing a Jewish innovator and syncretizer would do who wanted to create one new mutually popular religion of Jew and Gentile alike, which is Paul’s explicitly stated mission (see my discussion of the obvious utility of this move in Not the Impossible Faith, pp. 52, 116, 131, 260). And that mission made perfect sense in his political context, solving a number of going problems in Judaism at the time (see OHJ, ch. 5, §23–28).
It is also worth noting that Paul did not actually “abandon” Torah and circumcision. As Livesey admits, he did so “only for gentiles” (p. 225). In the core six letters, Paul never says Jews should abandon Torah (or circumcision), and he himself did not. He says he was flexible in how observant he was (on behalf of the mission), but he never argues that Jewish Christians should abandon Torah—only that Gentile christians did not have to pick it up, a crucial distinction. The idea of asking Jews to give it up may have evolved into play during his ministry, but we do not see it explicitly argued until the anonymous Epistle to the Hebrews, which appears written shortly after his death, and what it is reacting to (if Galatians is anything to go by) appears to have been an innovation made within Paul’s congregations independently of him, not one he argued them into. It was a natural evolution of the syncretistic revolution. Not some sudden radical idea.
Meanwhile, Livesey’s argument that Paul’s “assessment of Jewish law” finds “no parallels in primary sources dated up through Josephus” is both circular and a non sequitur: you have to assume the conclusion (that Paul’s letters, and Hebrews, aren’t an example of this) in the premise (that no such literature existed) to get the conclusion (that Paul’s letters, and Hebrews, aren’t an example of this); and we have almost no other counter-mainstream Jewish literature from the period in question, so we don’t know that Paul’s take was all that novel (we cannot argue from the silence of documents we don’t have), nor would its being novel entail it didn’t happen (obviously every novel idea begins sometime—and we have no reason to believe it didn’t begin then). And yet, ironically, Livesey disproves her own assertion here by quoting the early-first-century author Philo (Mig. Ab. 16.89–94) attesting to “Jews who fail to uphold the rite of circumcision” by arguing against them (pp. 213, 222). So, not new.
By contrast, as already noted, if none of this existed when Marcion set out, then these are absolutely not the letters he’d forge to sell his ideas. He’d have them directly sell his ideas. For example, even if he was somehow stuck with Peter as founder (but did Peter even exist as a character yet?) he’d have him immediately from the first resurrection appearance of Jesus or even during his ministry teach the whole the-Demiurge-did-it, circumcision-is-now-rescinded gospel from day one, and declare all counter-narratives false gospels from the Devil. He certainly would not create (or reinforce, if somehow they already existed) the defeaters of his own position, as the core six Epistles are full of (even in what we can reconstruct were his versions of them), and leave out half the things he actually wants to defend.
So there is no way to push this development into the second century. It is not anachronistic in the pre-war period. To the contrary, historically and anthropologically, the early first century was the most ideal period for this syncretism to occur. The core six letters thus fit that context perfectly, not awkwardly.
Do the Paulines Look Like the Senecans?
Another of Livesey’s core arguments is that the letters of Paul (and I will mean here only those core six) are so much like Seneca’s Moral Epistles that we can assume they are parallel in their entire milieu and purpose, and “therefore” the Paulines are forged fiction. I already noted last time that this is fallacious at the first premise (Seneca’s letters aren’t forgeries). But it’s also false. These letter collections are neither at all alike nor would that entail they are fictional. Livesey’s fallacy here is in leaping automatically from the “possibility” that the Moral Letters are Seneca’s fiction to the “probability” that they are (on no sound basis of evidence) and thence to the “certainty” that they are, and then transferring this illegitimate conclusion over to Paul.
There are so many non sequiturs here it is hard to keep up. But the bottom line is: possibly is not probably. For example, the Senecan letters are addressed to a friend of his named Lucilius (of equestrian, not senatorial rank), whom Livesey says “could” be a fabrication and not a real person. But we do not know that (see my endnote). With no evidence that the letters’ addressee does not exist and was not receiving these letters, you simply cannot operate on an assumption that they didn’t. Because then it’s just assumptions in, assumptions out. Which is miles away from a factual conclusion. And all the same goes for Paul. Just because fake letters are designed to “look like” real letters does not entail real letters are fake. And just because we have lost all surrounding literature does not mean the fact that “we have no other evidence for Lucilius” entails he did not exist. We cannot get that argument from that data. We cannot argue from the silence of documents we don’t have.
But Seneca’s Moral Letters read nothing at all like the letters of Paul anyway. You can noodle through them and see for yourself. They read more like the Meditations of Marcus Aurelius, only addressing and incorporating Seneca’s friend as the specific target of a mentor’s advice, and a lot more focused (unlike Aurelius, Seneca clearly had an agenda of specific subjects of moral, literary, and life advice to cover). As such they are more like literary exercises shared between correspondents (as Pliny and Tacitus refer to in their correspondence). They are rarely particular. Even when they get particular at all, it is incidental, like forcing a reason to bring those details up and connect them to a letter’s theme.
Paul’s letters are quite the opposite of this. Not a single one is a philosophical meditation. They all leap from problem to problem, attempting to dispatch each as quickly as possible, or else build a forceful oration to solve a bigger problem that is more about retaining Paul’s control of his congregations than elocuting a generic philosophical subject. When particulars come up, they are necessary to the purpose, not forced in. And they all are defenses of Paul the man, not big scriptural or philosophical topics—or even institutional topics. For example, unlike the forged Pastorals, the Paulines recognize very little in the way of institutional hierarchies and avoid defending any (other than Paul’s own authority and rights), which makes little sense for the hierarchy-defending church wars of the 2nd century. You can contrast that with forgeries like the Johannines, which avoid particulars, defend no personality against threats and attacks, and instead defend generic church-wide institutional dogmas in a way that completely resonates with the debates over power within the 2nd century church (just as the Pastorals and 2 Peter do). I say more about this in my forthcoming book. But overall, the core six Epistles look too viscerally personal, ad hoc, and real, when compared to known forgeries and literary exercises.
So the entire idea of comparing the Moral Epistles to the Paulines is a false analogy. Whether Lucilius was real or not, using him as an addressee is certainly for Seneca a device, at every turn, and not a spontaneous happenstance. Conspicuously, Paul’s letters do not look that way, while Seneca’s do. So the one feature that Livesey wants to paint as analogous is precisely the feature that is not analogous. And when Livesey builds-out an elaborate set of suggestions for “how” Lucilius and Paul could be fakes, she never presents any evidence that those just-so stories are true. That they are contextually plausible simply doesn’t count. It’s neat stuff to know. But it can’t get you there. This is the same apt critique of naive Jesus mythicism. But there the flaw is not in the logic, but in the facts: mature mythicism is referencing evidence for its conclusions, not mere plausibilities. Livesey is weirdly being too gullible about Jesus and too skeptical about Paul—as if modern social politics, and not evidence or logic, is deciding which subject you get to openly doubt now.
Even when her analogy holds it argues the opposite conclusion. The Senecan and Pauline letters are completely analogous in one respect: they both fit their context far better than epistolary forgeries tend to do (for comparison, see the forged correspondence of Paul and Seneca). This is in fact how we know the Senecans are probably authentic: their contents match exactly the political and cultural circumstances of the 60s, and therefore we are confident Seneca wrote them (even if as fictions, though I am skeptical they are completely fictional, and Livesey presents no evidence they are). By the same fact we know the Paulines are probably authentic: their contents match exactly the political and congregational circumstances of the pre-War period (as I already noted, and pointed out more last time).
Conclusion
Ultimately, there is simply no good analogy between Seneca’s letters and Paul’s, and none of Livesey’s extensive and erudite suggestions as to what’s “possible” about them are backed by any evidence that those suggestions are true. And so this argument cannot carry her conclusion. Neither is there any evidence that the letters are weird or don’t fit their context. To the contrary, they do fit that context, and don’t fit the context Livesey wants them to have been written in, especially if we assume they didn’t exist yet when forged, which removes most of the reasons she could appeal to for them to be forged as they are. Anything still weird about them, meanwhile, is explained by their weird editorial history, not their context or composition. All the rest of Livesey’s arguments rest on fallacies, anachronisms, or incorrect assumptions. Nevertheless, her every chapter is a treasure trove of hypotheses and data that anyone interested in the letters of Paul will benefit from. You just have to take them critically and not just assume her facts are always right, or her assumptions always correct, or her logic always sound.
I could go on cataloguing examples of this for ages. But to give you one last example of what I mean that you need to be on your guard against: at one point Livesey uses the anachronistic word “saints” but it is not clear to me what she wants the reader to understand by that. Paul never calls anyone a “saint.” That is a far later concept that hadn’t even been invented yet. When Paul wrote, that word only meant “holy,” and he says that because theologically all Christians were holy (see Romans 11:16 and Romans 12:1), because they, as a new body, had replaced the holy temple (1 Corinthians 6:19 and 1 Corinthians 7:14) and are living as a holy people (1 Thessalonians 3:13 and 1 Thessalonians 4:7). You can see this in all of Livesey’s own examples (p. 153). She does not specifically make an argument from this so I can’t say it is an error or just a misleading choice of English vocabulary. But I offer this note to forestall readers from being misled by things like this. You have to approach her text as critically as anything else.
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Endnote on Lucilius: It is not entirely true that we have no external evidence for Seneca’s correspondent Lucilius. He is also the addressee of Seneca’s Natural Questions. Which counts against him being made up—much less having false stories told of him in Seneca’s published letters, as the role of dedicatee was typically reserved for important patrons, clients, or friends, whom you would treat with respect. And it is widely believed the Aetna (appearing composed at exactly the right point in time) is the very poem Seneca encouraged Lucilius to write (in letter 79; and he does mean a whole poem, not a mere section of one, contrary to what some scholars assert), and though we are missing that poem’s original author-line, the coincidence is at least somewhat unlikely. There are arguments against this, so it’s not a strong argument by itself. It’s more significant that we don’t expect to have such or any data confirming the reality of any procurator in Sicily (as Seneca implies), much less Lucilius, so our not having it in anyone’s case cannot argue they didn’t exist.
Seneca is unclear as to his friend’s full name or what position he was appointed to. His only description, procuratiunculae pretio, “for the pay of a little office” (31.9) is super vague, but (contrary to what you will read) cannot mean governor, as Sicily was a small Praetorian province without armies, and as such was governed by someone of Senatorial, not Equestrian rank. But much of Sicily had been acceded to the Julians as Imperial family land and assets, and as such would require a lot of procurators, which are not state positions but private management positions (landlords, factory managers, administrators, and the like: see my chapters on this in Hitler Homer Bible Christ). Lucilius would likely be getting a plum position like that (which under the Roman Empire would entail ample graft and self-dealing), as that was a position only Equestrians could serve in.
Overall, nothing in the Moral Letters is inaccurate or anachronistic. Which does not ensure they were really sent, but also does not grant us any assurance they weren’t. For example, as I said the first time, “I’ve written essay-letters to people for their entertainment and ancient authors often refer to mailing each other pieces of literature for critique and enjoyment” just like these. And Seneca’s Moral Letters were edited for publication, so we can’t discount them on other grounds, either, like that their dates have been scrubbed. Since we don’t have copies of the originals that were sent (if such there were), we cannot say what was not in those or that they didn’t exist. Indeed, most likely they would have been mailed with a cover-letter, which would include the proper introduction, date, and incidentals, and refer to the enclosed essay. So we just can’t claim Lucilius was fake or any of the things Seneca says of him are false.
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Endnote on Galatians: Livesey cites Tertullian, in Adv. Marc. 4.3.1, as claiming Marcion alone discovered the Epistle to the Galatians (that he is the one who “found” it: p. 248). But this is unlikely to be what Tertullian meant—otherwise that letter would sooner have been rejected as spurious and never have appeared in our anti-Marcionite edition at all; nor would it pass stylometrics with the other letters. Because on this reading, Tertullian does not say here that Marcion found the letters, but only Galatians, which would entail Tertullian knew a publication of the other letters prior to Marcion. So Livesey’s thesis becomes somewhat contradictory here.
In fact this is a text all too frequently misread by modern scholars, and I think the Latin is here being mistranslated (or its popular 19th century English translation is being misunderstood). This is the same passage often cited as attesting Marcion wrote the first Gospel when in fact it attests exactly the opposite:
What Tertullian actually says is that Marcion tried to discredit those other Gospels (destruendum statum eorum evangeliorum quae propria et sub apostolorum nomine eduntur, lit. ‘tearing down the status of those Gospels, which are genuine and produced under the name of the Apostles’). But he says Marcion did that by admitting those Gospels were written by Apostles but then claiming those Apostles perverted the message (apostolos praevaricationis et simulationis suspectos Marcion haberi queritur usque ad evangelii depravationem, ‘Marcion complains that the Apostles are suspected of prevarication and pretense, all the way to perverting the gospel’). Which means Marcion made, in fact, the opposite claim to what [Markus] Vinzent alleges.
In other words, Tertullian is saying Marcion wrote attacks on the other Gospels of Tertullian’s edition—and not on their authenticity, but their accuracy; and not after Marcion published his edition, but in his edition. Which entails Marcion well knew (and was responding to) those Gospels already existing before his. This cancels all attempts to argue that Marcion’s was the first Gospel composed. It clearly cannot have been. Marcion himself said so. (Though, notably, at the end of that same section, Tertullian makes clear that Marcion’s Gospel was formally unnamed, concurring with the leading theory that the Gospels only got their names—Matthew, Mark, Luke, and John—in the anti-Marcionite edition.)
The same happens when we look more closely at what Tertullian says about Galatians in the Latin. Tertullian is describing how Marcion “struggles to destroy the stature of the Gospels published under the personal name of apostles” (connititur ad destruendum statum eorum evangeliorum quae propria et sub apostolorum nomine eduntur), meaning our four Gospels, and says one of the arguments Marcion uses to do that is from Galatians 2:14, where Paul accuses the apostles of corrupting the truth of the gospel (and “therefore,” Marcion’s argument goes, their Gospels are unreliable).
This is where we get the line “Marcion, finding the Epistle of Paul to the Galatians” (Marcion nactus epistulam Pauli ad Galatas), where the key word is nactus. Livesey and others take this to mean “discover,” as in, unlike the other letters, Marcion somehow “found” this letter no one else knew about before, so as to make this argument from it. But were that so, Tertullian’s rebuttal would be to challenge the letter’s authenticity as self-serving. Instead Tertullian grants without even argument that it is authentic and says what he quotes from it. This implies it was part of the original pre-Marcionite publication that Marcion edited and published, and not some new thing only he claimed to have found.
So more likely Tertullian means “light upon” or “get hold of,” not “discover.” The word is nanciscor, which only means “find” in a much broader sense than only “discover” (e.g. “finding the weather favorable,” “finding a foothold,” “finding a passage in a text” and likewise “meet with,” “encounter,” “stumble upon,” and even “acquire” or “arrive at,” per the Oxford Latin Dictionary). In other words, Tertullian is not saying Marcion uniquely “discovered” Galatians. He is simply saying he picked up or got ahold of an edition of Galatians, or lit upon or arrived at Galatians in the course of his argument. Hence “Marcion, arriving at the Epistle of Paul to the Galatians,” as in, getting to that part of Paul’s letters in Marcion’s mining of data for his argument, and “Marcion, receiving the Epistle of Paul to the Galatians,” as in, inheriting or buying or picking up a copy of the Epistles of Paul and using this Epistle in particular to make arguments from, are both credible (if even more plausible) translations of Tertullian’s meaning here.
Certainly we cannot sustain the “discovery” thesis with any confidence on so thin a thread as this.





Many thanks, perfect reading! There are always lousy forgers and cleverer ones. Would it be unthinkable that the one producing the “real” Paul letters was one of the cleverer ones? Studying, knowing the history of Christianity – most likely even better than we do. Now, being tasked with forging Paul, he would have known that he couldn’t mention the destruction of the temple nor the Gospels etc. He would also have known that Christianity looked different in the 1st c., used only OT sources, knew what personal archives of letter copies looked like?
The second point is: I think that your assertion of Mark’s “immediate worry about the existential consequences of the Jewish temple being destroyed” needs more backup. Current Texts about WW II show immediate worry as well. 80 years after.
“Cleverer ones” is a problematic term. There are no examples (zero) of anyone this clever in antiquity and almost none in modernity. So, that probability would appear to have a base rare near enough to zero as to not even bother considering without more positive evidence.
But this doesn’t answer half the problems anyway. Part of my point is that the cleverist forgers would have produced an entirely different content for these letters than we have. So the forgery thesis requires an impossible conjunction of the forger being simultaneously a master and an amateur.
As for Mark, I think you are misapplying the term “immediate worry.” The “immediate worries” for WW2 today are the risk of it being repeated (genocide, world war, nuclear war, etc.). That isn’t Mark’s situation. He is in the opposite situation: having to explain why the world didn’t end when the existential foundation of Judaism just did. A hundred years later, that would already have been solved, and so you’d see simply repetitions of the solution. Mark appears unaware of any solution and is trying to come up with one, and it’s awkward and lacks foresight (he clearly did not think he had to explain why the world would still be around 100 years later and that there would even be a second war over the ruins of Jerusalem and that it would be replaced with a pagan city from which Jews were banned, and so on). In other words, Mark is clearly close to the events of the first war, not far.
An analogy would be someone today fretting over the testimony of Nazi officers at Nuremberg as a contemporary thing still unfolding. That would not make sense today. It would only make sense in the late 1940s. After that, this is all past history, so how we write about it (even how we analyze and fret over it) would take a completely different form. This is what the Gospel of John looks like (he just ignores it all as irrelevant) or the Epistle of Barnabas (applying already well-worn solutions to current events of the Bar Kochba rebellion) or Justin Martyr (he uses the long-past end of the temple cult as an obvious disproof of the continuing legitimacy of Judaism, without any sense of this being an urgent problem to solve).
To be scrupulous, we must note that any successful forgeries would, by definition, not have been detected. Imagine how many ersatz Vermeers are still in place on walls worldwide.
In practice, we can look for examples of texts that were not suspected of being forgeries before a new, reliable method enabled detection. The number of detected forgeries only ever increases, albeit fitfully.
The second point is correct. But it only illustrates the same factors we started with:
First, we can have other evidence for a forgery besides the forger’s mistakes. So for the successful ones to successfully dodge every category of evidence is improbable. Not impossible, but all that matters here is relative probability. It is no more logical to say “Muslim terrorists can successfully hide themselves in plain sight, therefore we can believe Muslims secretly now run the entire U.S. military.” The possibility does not get you the probability.
Second, base rate can only follow from observed rate. The observed rate of this kind of failure for forgeries is ~100%. You cannot invent data you don’t have to make any substantial change to that result. Because then it’s speculation in, speculation out, and your conclusion remains as improbable as any other speculation (this is an unavoidable fact of logic).
And in consequence of both points, the evidence for authenticity in this case is numerous and diverse—and evidence must count. You cannot erase evidence by speculating an improbable series of never-before-seen feats repeated a dozen times in succession. That is the same unavoidable fact of logic. Epistemic probability cannot be gamed by proposing dozens of improbable things have happened.
So this all boils down to a fallacy of possibiliter ergo probabiliter. Which is methodologically invalid even from the start.
It’s the same thing as in apologetics where in order to get evidence to go away, a series of excuses are invented. But each of those excuses has no observed basis for being common, and even at 50/50 (a far higher rate of success per category of evidence than is plausible), they compound (the probability of ten 50/50 excuses being true is 0.5^10 = 0.00097656 ≈ 0.01% [correction: 0.1% if we round up) or a [tenth] of one percent). So there is no way to get authenticity to be epistemically probable with suppositions about a series of remarkable successes, rather than actual evidence.
I show the mathematical reasoning here for the category of miracle claims in Proving History. Everything said there about the “Smell Test” applies to natural feats as well as supernatural (enjoying better odds only relative to the supernatural).
You write: the Epistles likely only came to be published from Paul’s own traveling dossier of them, not by someone traveling to church after church collecting them. And that publication was maybe a hundred years later,
Are you assuming that the first database of the letters was created by Paul himself, and Paulinists preserved that database in the shadow to make them known only in Marcion’s times? Doesn’t this view assume gratuitously a phantomatic “school of Paul” concerned with the preservation of that database, out of the spotlight, for a so long time? Cicero and Pliny didn’t need “schools” preserving their books, but it is also true that their books didn’t disappear from the radars to emerge again bluntly from the shadow after 100 years.
I discussed the options in my original article that this article is referring to and expanding on. So you might want to read that article first.
But tl;dr: either Paul did indeed publish his dossier (and is the one who edited it), or he did not (but is still the one who edited it), or someone after him (most likely a student or successor of his) edited and published it, sometime before Marcion got ahold of that publication and decided to do something new with it (creating a second edit), which then resulted in the anti-Marcionites taking that same first publication and editing it (creating a third edit that may or may not have included things Marcion did to it). I think the base rate favors a successor of Paul publishing it (that’s most usually what happens), but it’s 50/50 who edited it. I discuss in my first article why Paul could be the editor (since it relates to what he would be using this dossier for).
This mistakes what “school” means and is one of my criticisms of Livesey (again see my first article and indeed my first followup before this one). One does not need a physical school. All you need is a single student who wants to venerate what his respected leader wrote. That’s it. And the probability that that existed approaches 100% even on base rate alone, but even more so on the evidence we have: 1 Clement establishes this was already the going attitude in the 60s, so it is not “phantom,” and the thought-school even without the name is evident in Hebrews, also from the 60s—so clearly Paul was influential enough to warrant a continuing school of thought enamored with his thinking. But again, even if we didn’t have that evidence, the argument from silence is completely invalid. It is a fallacy to say “we lack documents from the first century, therefore there weren’t any.” Livesey is completely wriong to think that is a sound way to reason, given all we know of the scarcity, randomness, and bias of document preservation from antiquity even in general, much more so (much, much more so) for Christianity in particular. I document this thoroughly in Chapter 8 of On the Historicity of Jesus.
For an argument from silence to work, there has to be an expectation of the survival of the evidence you claim missing, and there isn’t here. Moreover, we have the evidence (it isn’t missing), which means Livesey has to argue in a circle (whereby there is no evdidence for this except for all the evidence for this, by circularly declaring that evidence fake as evidence that that evidence is fake).
Yet hundreds of their peers’ publications did disappear. The odds of an author’s entire opus vanishing in antiquity was hundreds to one (we can catalog from known and statistically projected evidence that we have lost more than 99.9% of all books written and all authors published). That only rises when those deciding what to preserve deliberately do not want to preserve the things you want to see (or do so only in editions they control, which is exactly the situation we are in, and why we don’t have Marcion’s Bible).
Pliny is particularly instructive: he alone admired his father/uncle so much that he published some of his works posthumously. The prior odds are quite good Paul would have a similar interested party inheriting his archives (just as we find for other epistolators preserved in the sands of Egypt, and those weren’t highly influential charismatics writing foundational and persuasive literature for a growing cause). And 1 Clement and Hebrews give us a favorable likelihood ratio as well.
So there is no evidence that this is even unlikely, much less that it didn’t happen.
You write: even if we didn’t have that evidence, the argument from silence is completely invalid. It is a fallacy to say “we lack documents from the first century, therefore there weren’t any.”
If you concede for sake of discussion that Justin ignored still Paul and the letters, then do you agree that in that case the Argument from Silence becomes strong and the best candidate for the fabrication of the letters was probably the contemporary of Justin Marcion ?
An AfS requires two things:
(1) The expectancy. So, where is Justin expected to have mentioned Paul? And how expected is that really?
(2) And a lack of contrary proof. Since Justin wrote c. 160 and Marcion c. 145, Paul’s letters existed for decades by then (even according to forgery theorists); and Justin explicitly attacks Marcion and wrote a book against him, so it is impossible that the letters didn’t exist when Justin wrote, and therefore there would have to be some other cause of his disinterest in them.
One can try to challenge (2) by changing when Justin or Marcion wrote, and playing around with when the anti-Marcionite canon was produced (which may have been after Justin wrote or before, we don’t know). But that’s all speculation in, speculation out. There is no way to get a probability. Especially since the pre-Marcionite edition might not have been widely read (as de facto scripture) in churches, and Justin only ever cites that kind of source (hence he cites the Gospels as anonymous apostolic testimony only because they were read out in churches like scripture). The elevation of the Epistles to that status appears to have begun with Marcion and then the anti-Marcionite edition.
One can also challenge (1), as some scholars have done by pointing out that Justin does appear to know and use the Epistles, he just never cites Paul as an authority, which should not be confused as the same thing (by the same token Justin never names any Gospel, and appears to be using noncanonicals, e.g. he thinks they place the nativity in a cave, which only happens in the Protevangelion, which is a redaction of the canonical Gospel of Luke, and only ever mentions them at all because they have, he says, the authority of witnesses, which Paul did not possess—hence his calling them “Memoirs” rather than “Gospels”). For more examples of this point see discussions here and here.
So there isn’t really any AfS to make here that survives to usable probability.
The vast majority of jews in the first century were not pharisees and could not speak hebrew. Hyam mccoby believed that Paul was not a pharisee (as claimed in Philippians) because Paul quotes the Hebrew bible in Greek and doesn’t seem to know Hebrew and no self respecting pharisee would do that. What do you think?
That’s all incorrect.
First, being a Pharisee had nothing to do with being a native Palestinian Hebrew. The rabbis who compiled the Bayblonian Talmud weren’t even in the Roman Empire at the time, yet were inheritors of the Pharisee sectarian traditions. And most Greek Diaspora Jews would be Pharisees or sympathetic to, even those who never learned Hebrew. It was, after all, the dominant sectarian view in the pre-war period, across all of Judaism. Not the other way around.
Second, in antiquity the Septuagint was considered by most Jews to be a divinely endorsed interpretation of the Hebrew (that is in fact why it is called “the Septuagint,” in reference to the legend proving its status as divinely inspired and thus citable). So there was nothing weird about using it when speaking Greek. In fact, you had to: if you give your own Greek translation of the Hebrew to them, it would lack divine authority; so you had to quote the “God approved” translation even to discuss the Hebrew with Greek audiences.
So this is not evidence Paul did not know Hebrew (he says he did, and there is no reason to doubt him). Nor does it impact his status as a Pharisee. First, Paul was not a Pharisee anymore (he outright says he abandoned that sect as “garbage” when he became a Christian, and thus nothing we have from him was written “as a Pharisee”). Second, Pharisees abounded in the Greek Diaspora and surely spoke and wrote Greek (famous example: Josephus; and while the sectarian status of Philo is uncertain, he was an orthodox and widely respected Jewish exegete, yet wrote solely in Greek).
And third, only extremists were anti-Hellenist, not “the Pharisees.” This is reflected in the Shammai and Hillel wings of the Pharisee sect: most Pharisees were Hillelites (and that was the dominant view that made it’s way into the Talmud, with Shammaites cited only as a fringe minority who are made to lose almost all the arguments between them there). People often don’t realize this, but this is how we know Mark is anachronistic: many of the positions Jesus takes “against” the Pharisees were actually the dominant positions of the Pharisees (like the legality of healing on the Sabbath).
Mark thus conflates the minority Shammai sect (the conservative extremists) with “the Pharisees,” a mistake no eyewitness (or record therefrom) would ever make. But that conflation was convenient to straw man Jewish opponents after the war. And so that’s what we find in the Gospels. In reality, the Hillelites dominated, and were not against the Septuagint, or Greek education, or engaging with Greek Jewish communities abroad.
But according to legend, only the Torah was translated to Greek originally by the 72 elders. Eventually every Greek translation of the Hebrew bible was called Septuagint. Jerome complained about the many variants in the Greek translations. We know Christian translators altered the texts to give support to the new testament inventions that are not in the Hebrew text. Isaiah 61 says nothing about healing the blind in Hebrew, Luke invented that in chapter 4 and eventually that appeared in a Greek translation. What we can read as lxx nowadays is not necessarily what the new testament writers had.
Correct. The attribution of the miraculous endorsement came to be expanded to everything bearing the title.
There were also many variants in the Hebrew and Greek of every OT book, so that did not signify anything. Indeed the problem was worse then than today (I discuss this with examples in Ch. 4 of OHJ 88–92). And we actually do not know “Christians” did this (there is DSS and other evidence that they did not; maybe some were Christian edits, but quite a lot were variants already inherited from Jewish editions). And likewise we do not know Luke “invented” anything. He may well have had a Jewish copy that said what he says. Indeed, possibly even in the Hebrew, and already in the Greek. Although we know Mark relied on Aramaic targums as well, and Luke could also have.
But the bottom line is: don’t just gullibly believe any party line about variants. The evidence is far worse than you’ve been told, and most of it predates Christianity. Again, for examples and scholarship see OHJ. There is also a new study out about this: Richard Horsley, “Can Study of the Historical Jesus Escape its Typographical Captivity?,” Journal for the Study of the Historical Jesus 19 (2021), 265–329.
I really have always been baffled by the “But the Jews never would…” arguments. It’s just so obviously ignorant (for once, Livesey is not deliberately ignorant so as to promote apologetic nonsense) about the way people behave. You spend time around religious people anywhere for a fraction of a second and you find a great heterogeneity in their beliefs even as they attach their identities to the religion. (In fact, the great irony is that the success a religion has in being an appealing identity to coalesce around directly trades off with maintaining its dogmatic integrity, because when lots of actually-diverse people with varying experiences and assumptions default to the religion as an identity category, they’ll end up functionally making tons of versions of the religion).
The critical point to bear in mind is that, most of the time, to the first people making the new religion, they don’t think it’s a new religion! Mormons are very obviously a pretty drastic new development of Christianity, but they’re commonly included in many people’s ideoforms of Christianity. The people joining the LDS would not have thought of themselves as heretics: they’re following Christianity where it leads! And the Mormons are a good example of how this works too: the idea of individual planets and people becoming gods perfectly fit a 19th century proto-scientific proto-modern post-Enlightenment American context.
So the early Christians would have thought that they were really being Jews: The best Jews, in fact! The ones seeing the greatest truth.
And, as you’ve pointed out, the very fact that this religion inspired such immediate responses from their own people and so few Jews were convinced is actually what we’d expect. The hypothesis that zero people would innovate in a religion is so obviously counter-factual as to be totally indefensible. But the hypothesis that a tiny few would and thus would make small cults is so utterly plausible as to be completely beyond any real debate.
And, that such a new religion would take root faster in a regime where the authorities had become so cynical as to have its senate vote on who to deify is also expected.
I concur. For example, indeed, “mainstream Jews would never do this” is almost a tautology, but a non sequitur because no one is saying mainstream Jews did this. The question is not whether an average Jew would do a thing but whether an already fringe counter-cultural and explicitly innovating Jew would. And all the premises crash out on that question. It’s similar to those who argue “Paul would not do or say x because he was a Pharisee,” ignoring the fact that Paul explicitly says he abandoned Phariseism as (literally) garbage, so that premise no longer holds for him.
To be fair to Livesey, she would say she does not mean to imply it’s “impossible” for “any” innovation but that it is “improbable” so “drastic” an innovation would occur and that it “makes more sense” occurring on the Gentile side a century later—when she documents a lot of denigration of circumcision from that side of Christianity, though that runs into the circular argument and argument from silence of conversations and documents we don’t have access to, as she assumes if we don’t have the first century of materials, they didn’t exist, which is both a non sequitur (document survival is usually maximally spotty when a group is small, and hardly anything survives from them, especially things inconvenient for the later church to preserve) and false (she has to circularly assume the Epistles are fake, and all of the fakes late, to say we have no examples of this from the first century).
One would also need to dive all her sources to make sure even of her minor premise here, because prima facie her examples seem only to be Christians debating Jews, not Jewish Christians, which seem to have all but vanished by then. And if that’s the case, the Epistles are actually out of context then, reflecting a debate that no longer really existed (Jewish Christianity having so lost that debate by then it wasn’t even getting attention anymore). But it would be a project to confirm that.
Her major premise (on the relative probability of relatively radical change) is what I take to task in pointing out that it is not radical, especially given what we know of the anthropology and what Paul was trying to do (unify Gentile and Jew), and the needs of the market: to sell this product, it is self-evident circumcision has to go, and Philo already attests other Jews coming to that same conclusion, and Paul had a really well-formulated Jewish reason to abandon it—for Gentiles, as he did not yet abandon it even for Jews, which makes him less radical than the radicals Philo is arguing against.
One can say Hebrews then looks as radical as the Jews Philo argues against, but that’s a credible end-result of decades of Paul’s preaching, whereby his rationale for Gentiles not needing to enter the old covenant to enter the new covenant would among his congregations lead to the obvious next step from Jewish members, which is “Why then do I need the old one too, if I can just cling to the new one?” Hence my point that Hebrews does not reflect an argument Paul ever made, but an argument his congregations started organically making after decades of argument and reflection (similar to things evidently going on in Galatians), which his “school” (meaning, devoted advocates of his gospel) then simply picked up, ran with, and defended shortly after his death. Which means this was not radical. It was a gradual piecewise development.
Yeah, even from a Bayesian perspective the probability “weird innovative cult does thing that pragmatically serves their interests” is quite high, especially “thing that lets them proselytize”. The very fact that Christianity was an innovative sect makes innovations highly likely. Even if she were right that it would be more likely from later Gentiles, that differential in probability cannot be high. You are by definition dealing with the weirdos.
Plus, when we are measuring relative likelihoods like that, you have to factor in the improbability that Gentiles would even do this at all (why claim a Jewish scriptural religion without Torah to begin with—why not just join or mod an existing Gentile savior cult or invent one with more insider plausibility, like Mithraists did?). Normally that would cancel out (which is why we ignore it typically). But if we are taking care to look at the likelihood ratio, we have to remember that’s also in there, and does indeed cancel out whatever similar improbability is on the other side of the ratio.
Dr. Carrier, I wanted to ask you something about Mystery Religions as you have discussed them. One of their key traits you’ve posited was an essential cosmopolitanism–sex, class, ethnicity, etc., were little/no object to joining. In the traditional formulation of Christianity, it was Paul who “broke the ethnic quarantine” so to say and began a mission to the gentiles that prevented Christianity from remaining wholly Jewish. Might this imply that pre-Pauline Christianity was an unusually ethnocentric Mystery Religion, or that all the other Mystery Religions might have had a “Paul” of their own who injected the cosmopolitan strain into them? Many thanks for all your writings.
Good question.
The short answer is no, with an asterisk.
Paul did not originate the Gentile mission. It already preceded him, and this is because (most people don’t know this but) pre-war Judaism was generally evangelistic: Jews were often converting Gentiles to Judaism, called Proselytes, and had garnered a whole class of supporters, called Godfearers, who supported and attended Synagogue (having their own section to stand or sit in) but hadn’t gone all in yet (circumcision, dietary laws, etc.). More on this in The Incompetent Crankery of the Israel Only Movement.
So when Christianity began, its original idea of being cosmopolitan was to induct Gentiles as Jews (circumcision, Torah law, etc.). That was simply “becoming a Christian” just like “becoming a Mithraist” or “becoming a Bacchant” or “becoming an Osiris worshipper.” What Paul did was make it easier to join Christianity (which is why it was so successful: Gentiles then flooded and took over the church, especially after the war), by simply exempting Gentiles from the onerous reqs. of circumcision, dietary laws, etc. So he did not initiate the cosmopolitan feature; he only made it easier to realize.
Side note, though, these were these cults’ ideals, not necessarily actualities.
Whether and how far they lived up to them is a different question. For example, although all the misogyny in Paul is fake (someone added or forged that; it was not in Paul originally), there are still some different roles and positions for women, who are still subordinated to men in practice; slaves were still actually slaves (so “neither slave nor free” is more aspirational than actual); and so on.
Similarly, women could not join Mithraism, so it was not as pervasively cosmopolitan as most mystery cults, yet still had that element in it (it was supposed to collapse distinction of ethnicity, wealth, and status, but in practice preserved all that functionally while reducing its leveling more to high talk and different social ranks “being willing to hang out with each other” which was seen as revolutionary when to us it seems quaintly falling short of their ideals).
Hi. I assume you’ll sent out a mail on Patreon when “The Obsolete Paradigm” is released, yes? If not, if there’s a mailing list to sign up on, can you let us know here? Really looking forward to this one!
Absolutely. It will be announced on all my platforms. Including Patreon and my blog subscription email list. And it already has a slot waiting for the pre-order link to go up on my books page. It will be available for pre-order on Amazon probably a few months before it finally rolls off the press and ships.
Utility Note: In the article above I mentioned as an example of the Pauline letters not looking like what Marcion would invent the fact that they are full of early-high-Christology that places God or Jesus in the position of Marcion’s Demiurge, and credits to God’s righteous punishment or Satan’s avarice everything Marcion credited to the Demiurge, directly contradicting Marcion’s entire theology. I later provided a whole section of more examples in that article. And I gave yet more examples in comments on my previous article (see comment-41345 and comment-41364).
But for those who want more examples: it would take days to catalog all the examples—they are endless. But what to look for if you want to do this work yourself is:
Anytime Paul makes a point that would better suit Marcion if he had said something else instead, or something more specific to what Marcion wants, that’s a strike. Count them up, passage by passage.
Anytime Paul makes a point that contradicts what Marcion would want him to have said, that’s a strike. Count them up, passage by passage.
It’s a lot.
For example:
Why does Paul never mention the Demiurge or Demiurge theory anywhere at all? Not in tens of thousands of words.
Why does Paul never say the Old Testament describes the deviancy of the Demiurge (by that name or any other) but instead continually trusts the OT as divinely ordained scripture as written?
Why does Paul never condemn anything in the Old Testament as a lie or evil but regards it all as the inspired word of the one true God and his son Jesus?
Why does Paul never argue that even Jews should abandon Torah and circumcision, that the old covenant was with the Demiurge and therefore invalid? Why does he instead argue that it is all still valid for Jews and the old covenant was created by the same God offering the new one?
Why isn’t there anything about the Monad or any other peculiar thing Marcion needed Paul to establish and defend?
And why do the letters not endorse Marcion’s Gospel, or provide any good resources to? Or condemn, or provide any good resources to, any other?
That last is especially weird.
If Marcion is inventing these letters along with the proto-Luke he builds intends to publish them with, why is there nothing at all in the letters bolstering the authenticity of proto-Luke?
And if (as is fairly certain—again, as I explain, contra Livesey) the other Gospels already existed, why does Marcion never have Paul say anything to denounce or invalidate them?
Instead the letters he supposedly invented are not even aware any Gospel exists at all. And Marcion is supposed to have put nothing in the letters useful for combating those Gospels specifically or their authors, or promoting his over theirs.
Case in point is Galatians, which my final article endnote addresses with yet another example: Tertullian notes how Marcion tries to twist an unrelated thing Paul in Galatians said into what Marcion wanted him to have said (as being against the other Gospels). But why would Marcion have to do that? If he invented the letters, he would have them say the thing he wants, not something else that he has to “argue” into meaning what he wants, and that speciously, as the text doesn’t support his argument.
And so on.
There just is no way to get these core six letters to look like anything Marcion or his assistants would write. They are, rather, peculiarly pre-Marcionite.
To be fair to her theory, if the letters were edited by someone else later, any reference to the Demiurge could have been edited out. Similar to how any other references that contradict later Church doctrine too much could have been edited out. After all they look fairly edited.
Alas, we know that didn’t happen because we have extensive discussions (e.g. from Tertullian) of what was and wasn’t in Marcion’s edition of those letters (I cite the relevant studies in my original comment on this). So we know they didn’t insert any such material.
Moreover, that then invites the following question: why is what is in the letters not convenient to either Marcion or the anti-Marcionites? Paul’s probably closer to the anti-Marcionites, but he’s definitely not the same as the 2nd and later centuries context. The fact that Paul is so idiosyncratic compared even to the Gospels let alone compared to everything else really makes clear that the letters were viewed as at least somewhat inviolable (so you could maybe edit some fluff or some less relevant stuff but we have plenty left). Which points to their author preceding these discussions and having some cache in the movement. Which points to them being authentic.
That’s worth pointing out. Not all the disputes between the Marcionites and anti-Marcionites consisted of the peculiarly Marcionite ideas (like the whole Demiurge theory).
For example (and I discuss this in my new book) Marcion was a pneumatist (like Paul, and later Origen, for which Origen was declared a heretic): he agreed with Paul’s metaphysics of resurrection, that we do not inherit our flesh, it gets destroyed and we rise in new, alien superbodies more akin to stars than animals.
But the anti-Marcionites who composed our surviving canon were sarcicists: they condemned that reading of Paul, insisting we rise in the bodies of flesh we died in (Tertullian even says the quiet part out loud that this was necessary to undo Paul’s celestial egalitarianism and maintain distinctions of gender by social status: e.g., in the afterlife, men need their penises to prove they are superior to women; this is documented and argued by Bynum, as I cite in my discussions of this in Not the Impossible Faith).
A good example of what a forgery looks like is, thus, 3 Corinthians, which was invented to have Paul “clarify” that he was a sarcicist all along.
So the anti-Marcionites didn’t cut or “fix” the pneumatist text of 1 Cor. 15.
Why?
If Marcion invented it and their edition was supposed to fix that, why didn’t it?
This is evidence that both sides are using an existing set of letters that both know are out there, limiting what they can get away with as far as revision.
This also creates an interesting question for Marcion’s edition of Luke. It has a (supposedly) sarcicist resurrection mod. And scholars disagree on what Marcion’s edition said there (some imply “flesh” was not there and thus either cut by Marcion or added by later anti-Marcionites, and other disputes about what was there and what wasn’t). But even the most conservative solution entails Marcion kept some account of Jesus proving he was not a mere phantom. Was he therefore struggling to get a text against him to fit his narrative rather than cut or change it altogether?
Marcion could spin a “not a bodiless demon” and hence “not a mere phantom” story (as paraphrased in Ignatius) his way because he also was not arguing for “bodilessness” but a body of glory and also wanted to argue against pagans claiming it was just a hallucination or ghost (a la, famously, Patroclus) and not a risen body. But Marcion would not want the word “flesh” here, though, as that would be harder to spin. He could spin “bones” as that had a vague enough meaning to include any endoskeleton (even for a stellar spacebody) and would work to dispel the “mere ghost” argument which he also wanted to dispatch.
So this dispute remains unresolved. But the mixed evidence does suggest the text was a little awkward for Marcion, just not as awkward as modern theorists claim, and that would evince Marcion using a text he inherited rather than one he got to freely compose as he wished.
And back to the original question:
Except we have extensive notes from, e.g., Tertullian on what was and wasn’t in Marcion’s versions. So we can tell that nothing about the Demiurge was in there. And lots of things anti-Demiurge were. So the “it was all edited out” thesis is refuted and has to be discarded. I am already accounting for this in my analysis (there are two detailed studies on this that I cited in comments earlier that are the standard ones to use now).
Hello, Dr. Carrier, I am new to your blog and this topic. As an atheist/ agnostic it is not important for my non-belief if Jesus existed historically as a person who inspired the gospel tales or was entirely a mythical character. Nevertheless, it’s still an interesting historical subject. I try to start from some basic, logical assumptions: if Jesus (or some person, or maybe more than one person that could have been mistaken as one) din not exist, then neither did his followers, disciples, the twelve etc. So my question to you: who started the movement? Paul? Did he invent the other characters, the twelve etc.? Or is ‘Jesus’ a name that stands for a number of similar prophets, characteristic of the age, that somehow got coagulated in a single ‘person’, a single movement? [if I am interpreting correctly a video, you seem to say that these type of religions can appear almost ‘spontaneously’, out of thin air, you seem to rely on a comparative approach in formulating your hypothesis. Intuitively, I would have thought that even this sudden emergence of a religion must have a ‘material’, real life foundation and ‘Jesus’ could hot have been 100% invented out of the imagination of some impressionable people. Do you address this problem in any of your books/ papers? Does the mythical hypothesis include the possibility of a number of prophets or other religious actors that somehow were ‘condensed’ into the figure of ‘Jesus’?
Insofar as you mean, literally, “disciples” (students who sat at his feet before he died).
Which is why it is peculiar no such people are mentioned in Paul. Only apostles (there is no higher category). And Paul describes those as people who received visions of the Lord. He never once mentions anyone seeing Jesus before that. This is one of the clues that Jesus started out as a revelatory being, and was inserted into history (and his first “apostles” converted into “disciples”) decades later.
Paul himself says no. He describes how it started in 1 Cor. 15: with Peter and some body of “twelve” (they are not called disciples and it is not clear Peter was one of them or their leader: similar sects had these quorums of twelve, like Qumran), and admits to them preceding him in Gal. 1. Paul only added a new interpretation of the gospel, he did not originate it. He himself says he was a “persecutor” of the cult before he joined it (both in 1 Cor. 15 and Gal. 1 and elsewhere). Note that there is some cultic detail here (Peter/Cephas was not an Aramaic/Hebrew name but a word and thus is likely an adopted cultic title: e.g. Peter is the “Rock” symbolically from which the water of the gospel flowed and thus was Christ’s representative on Earth, as in 1 Cor. 10).
These things are all covered in my peer reviewed study, which details what can be known, what can’t be known, what’s possible or impossible, what’s likely or unlikely, and so on.
The tl;dr is no. Jesus at the start was a purely revelatory being born of “hidden messages” in scripture (a pesher) interpreted under influence from neighboring savior/mystery cults. Only a lifetime later, when the Gospels were written, was material borrowed from mythical people (Moses, Elijah, Odysseus, Romulus, Aesop) and historical people (Jesus ben Ananias, Socrates, Paul) to fabricate a historical narrative. None had anything to do with Christianity (e.g. Jesus ben Ananias was a real person whose story was borrowed as a skeletal structure for the passion narrative, but he existed decades after the religion began and was in not a Christian or connected in any way to Christianity) except Paul (and all that happened there were Paul’s teachings got converted into stories about Jesus).
Indeed. In my study I show that model too improbable to even consider. The only plausible model is the same as happened for all other fictional earthly gods and heroes (from Hercules to Osiris): they begin as celestials or woodland spirits or the like, communicated with only by revelation (dreams, waking or sleeping), and only later (typically at least forty years judging by known rates of development, e.g. Roswell, Cargo Cults, Ned Ludd, etc.) are they converted into Earth-walking people with family and genealogy and adventures and teachings. And that is done at first to allegorize the secret truth (Plutarch explicitly describes this process for Osiris). Taking the allegories literally (and indeed insisting on that and condemning and shunning anyone who says otherwise, as we find in 2 Peter and Ignatius) happens a generation or lifetime after that. So the timeline is about 80-120 years from “first revelation” to “literalist historicism” and involves transitional species (allegorical biographies, which are then hybridized as historical-allegorical or two-truths mythologies, which are then dogmatically coerced into being regarded as primarily literal histories).
If I may Dr Carrier, you will have seen
Appendix 2 James the Brother of Jesus: Antiquities 20.200
T C Schmidt
https://doi.org/10.1093/9780191957697.005.0002
Pages 231–248
Published: May 2025
Will a response be publisht here?
Yes.
First, I’ll be publishing an exposé of the whole book this week.
Then I’ll do an article on that appendix either this or next month.
That’s stupendous news. Dr Carrier, have you recently lookt at Faculty positions, if not America then elsewhere perhaps? Wouldn’t that get your scholarship more clout?
Professorships are shit jobs. So, no.
I soured on the idea of getting one in 2008 when the market collapsed, after several years of being “on the inside” and seeing how awful that career was (I used to romanticize it). Since then it’s become dominated by below-minimum-wage adjunct positions while plum tenure-track positions shrink or dissolve. But even the good positions are pretty terrible, exhausting so much time on teaching and committee work there is hardly any left for research and public communication. And the internal politics of academic departments are insufferable.
But on top of all that (which is already enough to get out of that industry):
Academic freedom is not really a thing. It’s all rat-race publish-or-perish we-punish-controversy-so-you-better-avoid-it pipelining now. The best reason an academic should never hold a professorship is that avoiding one removes all the levers of coercion special interests can use to silence or control what you publish or say or do. You are beyond their reach. And so you can say whatever you want, and pursue any research you want.
Case in point is even your stated reason for getting one: that’s precisely one of those levers of coercion, by promoting the Fallacy of Prestige—that holding a professorship adds clout. Which is literally false, as that has nothing to do with the quality or merit of a scholar’s work, because that really should always stand on its own, but is perceptionally true as people falsely “believe” it has something to do with that.
That is how special interests can control you: by leading the public to believe that, in order to force you into a position that you are then dependent on for income, which they can then control you with by abusing the system internally to coerce your compliance (by threatening to make your life difficult or panopticonning threats to your job or promotions and thus income, and just generally being a headache).
It’s really a fucked-up system the public should have no respect for anymore. It’s both economically and ideologically abusive. My own alma mater’s recent capitulation to fascist control of content is just an unusually public example. Usually you never see any of the real corruption and injustice in the academic industrial complex. But it’s soaked with it.