Bayesian Statistics vs. Bayesian Epistemology
I often encounter people who confuse “Bayesian statistics” with “Bayesian epistemology” or even just “Bayesian reasoning.” I’ll get critics writing me who will assert things like “Bayesian statistics can’t be used...Kamil Gregor on the Historicity of Jesus
An interesting video discussion of On the Historicity of Jesus took place earlier this year, in which “Kamil Gregor and Joel Pearson discuss the Historicity of Jesus.” It’s well worth a reply. Because Gregor understands the math. So what he gets...Boost Your Real IQ! Immunize Yourself against Fake News and False Beliefs with My Critical Thinking Class This September!
I’ll be teaching critical thinking next month (September). Learn some easy tools of Bayesian reasoning, how to spot and correct for cognitive biases, how to reason more logically and evade fallacies, and how to better question your decisions and beliefs...Hypothesis: Only Those Who Don’t Really Understand Bayesianism Are Against It
I’ve started to accumulate a lot of evidence that consistently supports a singular hypothesis: only those who don’t really understand Bayesianism are against it. Already I’ve seen this of William Briggs, James McGrath, John Loftus and Richard Miller,...William Lane Craig’s Duplicitous Denial That Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. This is a logically necessary truth. Notorious Christian apologist William Lane Craig tries to deny this. But only by playing word games. Let’s see how this statement actually pans out, and how Craig is being...Misunderstanding the Burden of Proof
In matters of knowledge and belief, everything is probability. They who do not understand this, will commit innumerable errors, and waste gobs of time arguing to no purpose. This is especially evident in debates over who holds the burden of proof in any given matter,...Killing Crankery with Bayesian Reasoning: The Kooky & Illogical Postflaviana Review
Joseph Atwill is a crank. His acolytes at Postflaviana are cranks. They are all conspiracy theory nutcases who prefer wildly, implausibly complex interpretations of history that insist Shakespeare was a black Jewish woman, the writers of Jane the Virgin may have...Why Christians Are Terrified of Probability Theory
A few years ago Strange Notions published a strange editorial by statistics professor William Briggs, called Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed (And That He Didn’t). I say strange, because it’s weirdly dishonest, incompetent, and irrational coming from someone...James McGrath Gets Everything Wrong (Again)
Just this month Bible scholar James McGrath, whose incompetence and dishonesty I have documented several times now (example, example, example, example), posted a really foolish attempt to critique Bayesian history on his blog. Titled Jesus Mythicism: Two Truths and a...How Not to Be a Doofus about Bayes’ Theorem
I’ve been dealing with a bunch of doofuses lately. And I can’t tell if they are alone in their quackery, or if their disease is afflicting anyone else. So here’s a primer on how not to be a total doofus about Bayes’ Theorem. I define a doofus...A Test of Bayesian History: Efraim Wallach on Old Testament Studies
An interesting article has been published under peer review, which tests my concept (developed and argued in Proving History) that all historical reasoning is already in fact Bayesian (historians just don’t know it), by applying it to the analysis of a major...C.H.R.E.S.T.U.S. for Christmas!
Did the Reason for the Season even exist? Dive into that question with a new mobile app! Reality Revolutions conceived an idea for a mobile application that would assist in quickly investigating every argument for and against the historical existence of Jesus. They...Timothy Keller: Dishonest Reasons for God (Chapters 13 and 14)
I began my critique of Keller’s The Reason for God with an exposé of everything up through Chapter 1, then Chapters [2] [3-5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10-12]. Here I will conclude with Chapters 13 and 14. Today, Keller returns to his usual pattern of simply lying; lying...Crank Bayesians: Swinburne & Unwin
Deepak Chopra uses “science” to spew bullshit. That does not discredit science. The Kalam Cosmological Argument uses “logic” to spew bullshit. That does not discredit logic. Politicians use “statistics” to spew bullshit. That does...What Is Bayes’ Theorem & How Do You Use It?
Bayes’ Theorem is just a logical formula. Like any logic, it can be used to argue silly things (like Sheldon on The Big Bang Theory trying to predict the future of physics on a whiteboard). Because bad premises, always lead to bad conclusions, even with...Get Dr. Carrier’s Latest!
About the Author
Richard Carrier is the author of many books and numerous articles online and in print. His avid readers span the world from Hong Kong to Poland. With a Ph.D. in ancient history from Columbia University, he specializes in the modern philosophy of naturalism and humanism, and the origins of Christianity and the intellectual history of Greece and Rome, with particular expertise in ancient philosophy, science and technology. He is also a noted defender of scientific and moral realism, Bayesian reasoning, and historical methods.
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