Bayes’ Theorem

James McGrath Gets Everything Wrong (Again)

Just this month Bible scholar James McGrath, whose incompetence and dishonesty I have documented several times now (example, example, example, example), posted a really foolish attempt to critique Bayesian history on his blog. Titled Jesus Mythicism: Two Truths and a Lie, McGrath aims to expose “the problematic case that” I have “made for incorporating mathematical…

How Not to Be a Doofus about Bayes’ Theorem

I’ve been dealing with a bunch of doofuses lately. And I can’t tell if they are alone in their quackery, or if their disease is afflicting anyone else. So here’s a primer on how not to be a total doofus about Bayes’ Theorem. I define a doofus here as someone who not only reasons illogically,…

A Test of Bayesian History: Efraim Wallach on Old Testament Studies

An interesting article has been published under peer review, which tests my concept (developed and argued in Proving History) that all historical reasoning is already in fact Bayesian (historians just don’t know it), by applying it to the analysis of a major challenge to the consensus that won out in Biblical studies, regarding the origins…

C.H.R.E.S.T.U.S. for Christmas!

Did the Reason for the Season even exist? Dive into that question with a new mobile app! Reality Revolutions conceived an idea for a mobile application that would assist in quickly investigating every argument for and against the historical existence of Jesus. They then collaborated with me in developing its structure and content. The purpose?…

A Critical Thinking Course That’s Affordable and Useful

I’ll be teaching critical thinking next month (October). Learn some easy tools of Bayesian reasoning, how to spot and correct for cognitive biases, how to reason logically and avoid and detect fallacies, and how to better question your decisions and beliefs in constructive ways. Skills everyone should have and hone! And that you might be…

Crank Bayesians: Swinburne & Unwin

Deepak Chopra uses “science” to spew bullshit. That does not discredit science. The Kalam Cosmological Argument uses “logic” to spew bullshit. That does not discredit logic. Politicians use “statistics” to spew bullshit. That does not discredit statistics. By exactly the same reasoning, cranks using Bayes’ Theorem to spew bullshit, does not discredit Bayes’ Theorem. It…

What Is Bayes’ Theorem & How Do You Use It?

Bayes’ Theorem is just a logical formula. Like any logic, it can be used to argue silly things (like Sheldon on The Big Bang Theory trying to predict the future of physics on a whiteboard). Because bad premises, always lead to bad conclusions, even with straightforward syllogistic logic. As atheists well know when they face-palm…

Fishers of Evidence Gets Confused about Math

Someone asked me about a confusing critique of the math in On the Historicity of Jesus by a YouTuber who goes by the moniker Fishers of Evidence. I don’t know his alignment in the debate. But he has posted a short eight minute video entitled The Error of Richard Carrier. And this is a good…

Bayesian Counter-Apologetics: Ten Arguments for God Destroyed

Bayesian counter-apologetics is the method of using Bayesian logic to turn every argument for God into an argument against God, simply by understanding how the logic of evidence works, and then reintroducing all the evidence theists always leave out when they attempt to make an argument for God. Which reveals the fact that all arguments for God,…