So James McGrath is a liar for Jesus, defending Christian dogma with slander and lies about me and my work, desperately, childishly, trying to get people to not read it lest they discover his lies and uncover the truth. He is clearly so terrified of this that he is willing to abandon his morality and act like an immature buffoon in a professional journal. Of course, a real journal would retract entries containing lies. So if this journal doesn’t, that will prove we can no longer trust this field to tell us the truth. And that is why it is stalling out.
So let’s get to that. In Obsolete Paradigm I make an extensive, evidence-based case for why the field needs a new paradigm. It needs to stop evading evidence, and abandon old indefensible presumptions, and revisit the texts and evidence from a more defensible point of view, to finally construct a more credible account of how Christianity began and developed. It needs to abandon the lies, and evasions, and unsupported assumptions that have been propping it up to the present day.
A Brief History of How We Got Here
Explaining that requires starting with a very brief and simplified history of how we got here. The mainstream consensus today favors a vague ordinary Jesus. Contrary to McGrath’s baloney, the field now admits the Gospels and Acts are mythographies. Until recently they thought they could recover some few details about a historical Jesus using “criteria of authenticity,” but every study in the field of the validity of those criteria—literally every single one—confesses they don’t work and should be abandoned. I already documented this in Proving History but as I show in Paradigm the field has moved even more in this direction since. The Demise of Authenticity is now the norm, as I’ll give a very recent example of scholars admitting below. But before that recent development, the field had clung to some ambiguous competing models of a historical Jesus. Jesus was an apocalyptic prophet or a misunderstood Rabbi or even a violent revolutionary (and so on). But now the field is side-eyeing even that much. More on that in a moment.
When this was the majority consensus ten years ago, there were two alternatives most abundantly endorsed: the goofy Ken Ham version of a historical Jesus (that it’s all true, the Gospels are eyewitness records—what I called the “triumphalist” version in OHJ 14) and the opposite, ultra-skeptical version (that it’s all myth, there was no Jesus: the only complete thesis on this question that has survived peer review in a hundred years—twice). That’s commonly now called mythicism. But you mustn’t confuse that (as McGrath does) with Gospel mythicism, which is the majority mainstream consensus: most experts agree the Gospels are myths about Jesus. The question of whether there was any kind of historical Jesus buried somewhere underneath that myth was generally just assumed to be answered with “yes.” But as I and Lataster pointed out, that assumption wasn’t based on any evidence that survives logical review. And they’ve had ten years since to redress that missing case. They have avoided it instead. So it remains an unevidenced assumption—against our extensively proven case. That’s where things stood. That stand is starting to crumble.
Mythicism is an old but much feared idea. Open doubts began in the 18th century. The first systematic case was mounted by the German scholar Bruno Bauer in the 19th century. But the most modern scholarly case began in the early 20th century, particularly with the studies and influence of another German, Arthur Drews. His serious peer reviewed case was then attacked by Shirley Jackson Case in 1912, which was updated in 1928 (pretty much only by adding a “what’s happened in the last ten years” chapter at the end), which remains to this day the only peer reviewed academic study specifically and comprehensively arguing for the assumption of historicity for Jesus ever—ever. None has ever been published since. None was ever published before. It’s the only one.
Yet this is all before 1950—when history remained highly unreliable. Drews is obsolete now. Case is even more so. Indeed, he defended historicity by relying on premises almost all of which have been abandoned by mainstream scholarship since. Yet the field just keeps circularly citing Case (or handwaving in his direction, unable to identify who or what study they mean as having “refuted that already” when asked about mythicism). No one has stopped to realize that Case has largely been refuted by the field itself. So the field needs a more modern, up-to-date defense of the assumption that Jesus existed at all. Instead, scholars just keep acting like McGrath. “Nothing to see here. Don’t look. We don’t need to defend our assumption. It’s all uninteresting. Trust me.” Joke. Insult. Flip table.
There was a revival of interest in mythicism by outsiders and amateurs in the 1970s. That’s when the bogus, crappy, conspiracy theory versions of mythicism got their start (see The Problem with Varieties of Jesus Mythicism) and are still being ground out today as if by some Monster Generator in Gauntlet. But there was also a serious case made across several studies by G.A. Wells back in the day. Wells was not a biblical scholar or even historian of antiquity, but a Professor of German Literature. Which is why he is the one who discovered and thought to revive the Jesus skepticism found across previous German literature. But he published none of his studies under peer review. And they were defective in a number of ways, as he lacked the relevant skills, training, and background knowledge. Which made him, alongside the cranks, easily dismissed.
And I was one of the crowd dismissing it all as crank. As editor at The Secular Web and a graduate student at Columbia University in ancient history, I thrashed every attempt to claim or push mythicism there. One of the prominent outcomes of that was my scathing review of The World’s Sixteen Crucified Saviors of Kersey Graves (a review that is now grossly out of date, as one can tell by my subsequent published findings, but Graves’ book remains useless garbage). More modern stuff was either crap or unconvincing. So I didn’t see the value of reviewing it. It thus took much cajoling to get me to bother to read Earl Doherty’s The Jesus Puzzle, assuming it would be more of the same. It wasn’t. It led me to conclude against all my prior hostility that maybe mythicism was plausible—if you got rid of all the garbage. As I said then in 2002, “all this is not to say that the historicity of Jesus has been refuted or that it is now incredible” but that “we must entertain the plausible possibility that Jesus didn’t exist.” I still leaned toward historicity, but had lingering doubts.
Then in 2008 the economy crashed right when I received my PhD and I ran a crowdfund to get me on a postdoc research project, and unanimously donors wanted a peer reviewed study of the Doherty thesis (trimmed down) and whether historicity can survive it. The result was several peer reviewed articles (most affordably reproduced now in Hitler Homer Bible Christ), and two peer reviewed academic monographs (Proving History, on method; and On the Historicity of Jesus, on results), and now a third (The Obsolete Paradigm of a Historical Jesus, which in all honesty actually passed factual peer review as well), updating on all the events and findings since. Including how the preceding studies spawned about a dozen other studies by other scholars, albeit of varying honesty and value. For example, almost all formal attempts to rebut our work literally ignored or lied about its content; and the few that were honest ended up supporting our work, as shown in chapter six of Paradigm.
Where We Are Now
That the trend has been to lie about our arguments and evidence, and never even mention them much less respond to them—and thus never actually defend the assumption of a historical Jesus—I also document with a thorough review of the evidence of that in chapter three of Paradigm. I don’t just insist or claim, but prove, that all academic responses to our studies (with minor exceptions discussed in chapter six) have combined three dishonest tactics of avoidance rather than legitimate scholarship: (1) they ignore our actual arguments and evidence; (2) they invent arguments we didn’t make; (3) and they simply repeat arguments we refuted without even mentioning (much less rebutting so as to recover from) our refutations. This is dishonest. And it is field wide.
The end result is that to this day there is still no relevant scholarly response to either Lataster’s 2019 study or my 2014 study—as in, a critique that acknowledges either study’s actual argument (and its corresponding evidence), and addresses it in any meaningful way. This is inexplicable for a position that is supposed to be easily defended. The truth would not require such tactics. Yet after being given ten years to produce a real defense, and failing, the guild seems to have implicitly conceded that historicity is a dogma whose doubtfulness is only to be made to go away, rather than actually disproved. As a rule, refutable propositions get refuted; but ten years of evasion across an entire field of study can only mean one thing: there is no refutation. And this is now the strongest evidence that the historicity of Jesus is no longer genuinely credible. It’s a shibboleth, not a finding.
The irony is that the field is moving our way anyway—while apologetics like McGrath’s is moving away from even mainstream scholarship, becoming ever more gullible and ridiculous, while real scholarship becomes ever more skeptical. I’ll illustrate with some examples:
- The first battleground going our way is Oral Lore vs. Literary Mythography. In Historicity I made an extensive case citing dozens of scholars and hundreds of studies across over 120 pages that the Gospels are not preserves of oral lore but are constructed works of literature. The evidence is vast and devastating. And already then countless experts agreed with me. In the ten years since, as documented in Paradigm, the field has moved in that direction with even more pervasion (26–34: eight pages, citing almost a hundred studies besides my own, a mere sample of publications pertaining), with the result that:
[T]he traditional dogma of the field regarding the supposed existence of an ‘oral lore’ concerning a historical Jesus, preserved under layers of literary and legendary embellishment in the Gospels, has come under more concerted attack as not only unevidenced but even implausible.
My position is becoming the norm. As just one example, see Robyn Faith Walsh and the Gospels as Literature; but again, I cited near a hundred. That’s the direction the mainstream is going in. Resistance comes only from Christian apologists, not objective scholars. While Christian apologists are increasingly moving in the opposite direction, abandoning the common sense of even the previous consensus (as we see with the rise of things like the new Maximal Facts apologetic and the tinfoil hat of Undesigned Coincidences).
- Related to that is the example of Mark’s use of Paul’s Epistles. That used to be dismissed out of hand. Now if you count all the studies specifically examining the question in detail, almost all of them are finding it’s true—in fact, they are now presenting extensive converging evidence proving it (see Paradigm 34–35 for summary and bibliography and Mark’s Use of Paul’s Epistles for some examples), while remaining doubts have no evidence to cite, instead relying on fallacious reasoning about possibilities rather than probabilities. But by count, almost all studies are a yes. That means the majority consensus of actual experts who have examined the question enough to have an informed opinion is that the Gospel of Mark is based on the Epistles of Paul, reifying stories about Jesus to convey what were really, originally, ideas and teachings of Paul. In Historicity I only mentioned this as a possibility. Now it is arguably fact.
Similarly:
- Docetism didn’t exist (with the effect that texts mistaken for it allow for the possible existence of early mythicist Christians). I had suggested this might be the case in Historicity. Then a dozen studies came out proving it. All Docetism experts, every study of the question now, is in agreement on this: there was never any such dispute as modern Docetism claimed, and all previously-alleged Docetist texts are about something more in line with mythicism. This is the new mainstream consensus. I document this, and cite all the scholarship, and advance on it from primary evidence analysis, in chapter seven of Paradigm. The field has again moved in my direction.
- The conclusion that all Christians considered themselves Brothers of the Lord. I argued this extensively in Historicity. Then some ten studies since mine now concur. All cited and covered in chapter ten of Paradigm.
- The conclusion that dying and rising gods were already a popular fad that Christian Judaism simply built into. Since my study, numerous others have confirmed this, refuting all challenges to it (Paradigm, 70).
- The conclusion that Paul is describing not a historical last supper but his own private vision of Jesus inaugurating the eucharist in 1 Corinthians 11:23. Numerous experts have since concurred and extensively argued the point (Paradigm, 44–49).
- The conclusion that Paul said demons killed Jesus in 1 Corinthians 2:6. Now a common position in the field (Paradigm, 39–44).
And many more. Paradigm documents dozens of these shifts. All in my direction. None against.
But for Doublespeak, Mythicism Already Won
The effect of all this now has even become a trend in the field, often called the Fourth Quest of the Historical Jesus: the view that we cannot know anything about Jesus, we can only study his context to understand that. This was starkly exemplified in what should have been the first ever peer reviewed study defending the historicity of Jesus in a century: James Crossley and Chris Keith’s 2024 anthology of cutting edge research, The Next Quest for the Historical Jesus. In which not a single argument is made that Jesus existed. Nor does it even say a debate exists in the peer reviewed literature about it. Neither my work nor Lataster’s is ever cited, much less answered or rebutted. In only one of its final chapters (on page 508), Justin Meggitt devotes a couple of sentences to vaguely mentioning that something like that exists and needs more attention (even chastising the field for ignoring it), but cites none of it, and gives it no attention.
Instead, Next Quest just assumes Jesus existed—ironically, given that McGrath abhors things you assert but do not prove—yet that describes the historicity of Jesus, not the doubting of it. Because Next agrees we can’t know anything about Jesus, since (for example) the Gospels are so thoroughly mythical that if any truth is in them we cannot locate it now, it argues the “Third Quest” should be abandoned (no more using criteria to try and extract a historical Jesus), and a new Fourth Quest begun, which consists of studying ancillary subjects like ancient rhetoric and literary techniques, the culture and economy of Galilee, Jewish diversity, urban legends, and so on.
Which means the strategy in the Fourth Quest for the historical Jesus is to simply ignore the only peer reviewed literature relevant to the question of whether Jesus even existed, and instead just “assume” he did, while simultaneously—and contradictorily—insisting nothing can be known about him. But if nothing can be known of him, how can we claim to know he existed? The effect of this twisted knot of reasoning is witnessed in C.J. Cornthwaite’s delightfully mainstream yet critically liberal Christian YouTube show. About two weeks ago, he published “Each historical Jesus search has failed. Here’s why they always will.” There he says the quiet part out loud, giving voice to what a lot of other scholars have already said (just like Crossley and Keith and all their contributors): Cornthwaite admits there is no valid method by which to derive any knowledge about the historical Jesus, the sources are so theologized and mythologized and silent or fake, and therefore every attempt to discover a historical Jesus not only has failed, but always will fail. He shies away from concluding it’s just as likely then that Jesus didn’t exist. But that leaves the unspoken contradiction: you can’t admit nothing can be known about Jesus, and then claim you know Jesus existed. Yet this is where the mainstream consensus is already concertedly going: toward this “politically safe” position of all but admitting mythicism without actually saying so.
And this is stalling the field out in false beliefs. We are still wasting time trying to answer questions about Jesus, rather than answering questions about what the early authors meant with the things they chose to say about him (for a stark example of this stall still happening, see my discussion of Luke in chapter six of Paradigm), and why Christianity began and grew, regardless of who started it (where we are not looking for some charismatic “great man” founder but the ideological motives and scriptural inspirations of the actual founders). This is already starting to be admitted by mainstream scholars now. Cornthwaite lays it out. In the Crossley and Keith volume, they also say it. In their introduction they admit how they’ve become “disillusioned” by the previous three quests for a historical Jesus, and that we must move on from “the rubble of some failed enterprises,” including the failed method of criteria that drove the last quest. You might recognize that method from Bart Ehrman still using the “criteria of authenticity” method with total confidence. But Ehrman is behind the curve. The consensus has already left him behind.
As Crossley and Keith explain, “the era of the hard version of the criteria of authenticity is over.” That’s right: it’s over. They explain that it didn’t get anywhere but reconstruct a loose chronology of the development of ideas about Jesus, and not any actual facts about Jesus. Therefore, they conclude “the Next Quest [sic] should move beyond searching for an uninterpreted reality ‘behind’ the texts” That’s right: we’re done with that now. These are mainstream historians admitting this. So much for that being ludicrous. They conclude we can only “reconstruct imaginatively a historical Jesus” (my emphasis), and we can only do that by “reconstructing the social world and themes associated with Jesus” (my emphasis).
Then comes the kicker (my emphasis again):
Are we ultimately going to be in touch with the historical Jesus? We may never know, but reconstructing ideas present in Galilee and Judea around the time of Jesus tells us something about the social world of the historical Jesus and thus something about Jesus himself.
In other words, if we just assume Jesus lived then, then we can at least establish what could and couldn’t be true of him if we understand the time and place. Which is true—but is giving up on establishing whether he even existed then in the first place. That is supposedly no longer anything they need prove or defend, even though they just admitted there is no way to prove or defend it. So why keep assuming it? In the end they agree with those who accuse them of saying “we can’t do historical Jesus study because the data won’t allow a reasonable biographical picture.” And that’s that. They are basically saying we can’t know anything about any actual person. So we need to move on…and just imaginatively assume there was one.
But what justifies moving on when you haven’t established the underlying premise of this entire new quest: that there was such a man? All previous quests failed. By their own admission. So why are we assuming they succeeded when we are admitting we have to build an entirely new quest on the rubble of the old? This is inconsistent. It is illogical. Yet it is where the field is now. They have admitted to everything mythicism established (and across literature published since my original study, that includes even particulars, like who killed Jesus, what Paul claimed, who Brothers of the Lord included, and so on)—without actually saying the one thing that that entails: that we’ve given up knowing whether Jesus actually existed. They will instead simply affirm a phantom Jesus because they have to, because they are not allowed to question it, because that would offend, and evoke harassment, and dismissal of their work—saving themselves from the slanderous clownery of McGrath’s review in JSNT.
All I am now arguing is that this has to end. We need to stop assuming a Jesus existed and start asking what the origins of Christianity looked like without one. That paradigm shift is the only way to move forward in understanding early Christianity. And I don’t just assert this. I prove it. I present detailed examples of how real progress can be made when we abandon the old paradigm, and how the old paradigm is forcing scholars into convoluted knots and embarrassing errors (this is the whole occupation and outcome of Paradigm chapters three through ten).
In essence this mainstream vanguard are now acting like we should just assume Hercules existed, but we can’t know anything about him because it’s all buried under myth and error and fancy, so we can only know things about Hercules by studying early Peloponnesian pottery and economics. We would all recognize that’s a broken paradigm. But no one will admit this for Jesus because of Christian elite capture of the field and its resulting peer pressure and commitment to prestige economics. Obviously the correct paradigm is to explore why Hercules was invented, the circumstances of his evolution as a demigod, the purpose and meanings intended by the stories invented about him, the uses made of his myth to push religious, social, and political agendas, and so on. So, too, for Jesus.
As I conclude in my book:
All the evidence of the previous ten chapters leans in one direction: Christianity began with revelations (just like Islam and Mormonism), and the Gospels are later literary mythologizations of their savior—which subsequent Christians historicized, expelling and condemning any remaining Christians who did not go along, even adding explicit assertions of historicity into the creed to ensure compliance.
Christians who objected were explicitly shunned (as Ignatius and 2 Peter admit) and their teachings and writings not preserved (as is evident by their absence now, despite knowledge of them then). Which means our understanding of the origins of Christianity needs to be reconstructed from the ground up. And the content of the early Epistles needs to be reinterpreted in light of their authors’ not knowing of a Gospel Jesus. And the content of the Gospels needs to be reinterpreted in light of their authors’ inventing him.
The field of Jesus studies needs to reckon with these facts and address them. Continuing to ignore or evade them only leaves its collective head in the sand, pursuing the wrong avenues of inquiry for understanding how and why Christianity began and developed in its early generations, and the wrong avenues of inquiry for understanding the Gospels and the letters of Paul—and other literature as well.
This is what McGrath doesn’t want you to know, what he wants to hide from his peers, behind slanders and lies meant to dissuade them from discovering it, and finally having to address it. He is a symptom of the very problem I document.
❀
I gave a lengthier talk and Q&A on all this for the Atlanta Freethought Society just last week. This is not a transcript, but is the gist of my presentation. An archived video of that will exist eventually. I’ll link it here.
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Furthermore, ten years ago Bart Ehrman mocked and laughed at Robert Price during a debate for suggesting Paul didn’t write Galatians. Now we have a book published by Cambridge University Press by Nina Livesey arguing that all of Paul’s letters were later literary creations. More evidence of the growing trend in scholarship.
Which is an example of the field quietly going even more toward mythicism than I have.
Folks can check out my thoughts about that in Was the Entire New Testament Forged in the Second Century? (on Markus Vinzent’s Cambridge University Press monograph corroborating Livesey’s) and Are Paul and His Letters a Second Century Fabrication? A Critical Review of the Livesey Thesis which starts my three-part series on her argument. Because even though I disagree with them, I take them seriously. As McGrath and everyone else in this field should.
It is funny that Livesey and Vinzent are are treated better than Carrier when their theses leave no plausible space for any flavor of historical Jesus. Carrier’s anyway is consistent with a live Jesus who attracted followers and might even have been executed in circumstances that may be conjectured with no fear of contradiction.
Indeed. That is an example of my point in this article. Simply because they play the game and avoid saying Jesus might not exist (they persistently avoid that third rail trigger word), the monkeys are calm and let their theories pass.
But had they added a single sentence like “This renews the need to study whether Jesus existed,” with a citation of Carrier 2014 and Lataster 2019, a completely milquetoast noncommittal statement of mundane fact, that would have gotten their studies rejected. And their reviewers would not say that was the reason. They’d invent a bunch of hostile malarcky about the rest of their studies as the excuse.
That appears to be the nature of corruption in this field.
The Jesus we know nothing about except that he existed reminds me of deism. There aren’t many deists anymore, but it was a useful transitional phase. 🥲
I agree, it shows the level of irrationality in the field. I think that saying Paul wasn’t a real person is really quite radical, more radical than saying Jesus didn’t exist and I’m not convinced for the same reasons as Richard, I think the internal evidence against the letters being fakes is strong and I think Mark using the letters is more likely than the other way round.
I think there are a lot of overconfident assertions in Biblical studies, you often hear from people like Ehrman (who I think takes a fairly standard “mainstream” secular view) that we know about Jesus, i.e being baptised by John the Baptist, that he was a preacher, that he got cruficied by the Romans. I think even if we assume Jesus existed, I´m very unsure about any of those things (apart from that he probably would have been some kind of preacher). In Proving History, I think Richard shows good explanations for why John the Baptist might be in Mark (i.e to try to recruit his followers to follow someone greater) and I think the crucifixion, even if Jesus existed, may well have been thought to have happened after he died (he may well have been executed by stoning, or got killed in a riot) and I think Paul tends to support that view, or at least it’s not incompatible.
The thing I think is ridiculous is how people tie their reputations up with defending particular views or hypotheses. People’s reputations should be held up on their ability to logically reason through things and admit when they’re wrong and it happens to us all.
I own all but one of your books and so far, I am convinced. I was a doubter to begin with but left open the possibility that Jesus was an actual person and not just a character in a story … which is actually irrelevant unless you can also prove that he was also a god. If he wasn’t, then why the interest in Jesus as he is claimed to have said absolutely nothing that was new?
Thank you for all of this content. Thank you for having a good attitude (which includes standing up to bullies), I gotta go find that last book.
I find this all very interesting, that academia is so willing to accept a historicity of a character that, as far as we can tell, only appears in works of fiction.
The more reasonable ones (McGrath is not, but there are some) would answer you by saying Paul refers to a historical Jesus outside fiction. They’re wrong. But that is a respectable point of debate, hence I devote three whole chapters to taking that argument seriously in Paradigm.
The less reasonable ones will foolishly claim Jesus appears in actual histories (Tacitus and Josephus), fumbling on the fallacy that a history derived from fiction is still fiction. But also fumbling on their own gullibility: there is a ton of evidence these passages didn’t originally exist but were forged (a big part of chapter three covers Tacitus on this; and in chapter two I cite near a dozen studies covering Josephus on this, but see e.g. Hansen’s Contribution to the James in Josephus Debate and Exposing T.C. Schmidt’s Oxford Apologetics for the Testimonia Flaviana).
thanks for the response – always great to interact with you
Like many ex Christians I didn’t let my faith go without a fight. I had to be SURE, and that meant going down every theological, historical, and scientific rabbit hole to see what remained. I took Nietzsche’s comments to his sister to heart: “If you want to achieve peace of mind and happiness, then have faith; if you want to be a disciple of truth, then search.” Nothing I learned was comfortable, but I had to admit it was true, and I was first and foremost a “disciple of truth”. If my faith was built upon truth, as I assumed, why should I fear critical examination of it? If it wasn’t, it wasn’t worth holding. I suspect the majority of these Christian “scholars” simply don’t hold that truth first and foremost in their hearts. There’s indoctrination and dogma there in its place, and all of their skills are used to reinforce and buttress it against reality. It makes them happy, grants prestige among their peers, and pays the bills. I’m pretty disappointed by my former colleagues honestly. I find it heartbreaking even. It’s a great betrayal of the very virtues they often preach.
In these circumstances it is usual to quote Max Planck, translated loosely “Science advances one funeral at a time”. J. Harlen Bretz faced doctrinaire geological uniformitarianism (itself of religious origin) after analyzing the eastern Washington State evidence of periodic, catastrophic flooding, and was finally granted geology’s highest award, the Penrose Medal, but only in his 96th year, after the last of his detractors had passed. That was a decade after plate tectonics finally prevailed, and a year before the K-T impact theory was accepted for publication. We flatter ourselves that science is self-correcting, but we are obliged to admit that its virtue is that it is seen to admit correction with some frequency, without violence, and survive.
The gradient of Jesus mythicism recognition is clear. The evidence is all out, and all favors one side, so it is now a waiting game. Moses was finally recognized as mythical following the Planck schedule, and we can be confident Jesus will join him in time. What will become of biblical scholarship when it has lost its fondest illusions? Maybe a renaissance led by historians. Most in the field today are woefully equipped to participate.
Point of information on a minor point in your blog today regarding the Lord’s Supper. I loved all the rest of it, especially the paragraph about Hercules.
Are you aware that the first recorded Lord’s Supper (Messianic banquet) is found in the Dead Sea Scrolls (DSS) written up to 200 BC?
Given that the term Christ is arguably a moral mind, moral, conscience aka, “Wisdom” manifest IN select/chosen humans, aka, prophets and/or apostles, —the term Christ used as a metaphor from when kings were anointed with oil,
AND the Teacher of Righteousness was martyred around 70 BC (per Wise’s analysis of the DSS), then Paul’s reference to the Lord’s Supper (1 cor. 11:23) could be referring to the night when the TOR, an historical human allegedly anointed by God—a Messiah figure identified in the Dead Sea Scrolls, presided over his messianic banquet before his own martyrdom. Per Wise’s analysis, the TOR predicted two more future Messiahs who would lead the banquet that he first established.
Per Wise’s analysis
Therefore, Paul is arguably referring to an historical event actually recorded in the Dead Sea Scrolls themselves. The DSS are the greatest archaeological discovery in 2,000 years revealing who the original Jewish-christians were but largely dismissed by christianity because it does not align with their dogmas. Par for the course, for christian apologetics, right? Ignore any evidence that does not fit with their dogmas and traditions. Hmmm…where we have we heard that before?
I am well familiar with Wise’s work. Those are hypotheses that may or may not be true. I think Wise is over-interpreting. But it’s not implausible at least.
But you can’t leave important information out of a quote like that. The actual quote is: “none may reach for the first portion of the bread or the wine before the Priest. For he shall bless the first portion of the bread and the wine, reaching for the bread first. Afterward the Messiah of Israel shall reach for the bread.”
That rules out any connection with the Eucharist. There are two masters handling the bread, and the priest is first, then the messiah; none of this has anything to do with salvation or communion; and there is no reference to body and blood, or remembrance, or any other features of the Christian ritual.
So this is just a generic ritual meal. It has none of the functions or peculiar content of the Christian version, which is more explicitly based on the Passover meal.
The common ritual role of bread and wine across numerous different Jewish meals of the time is discussed here.
To get a parallel, you need distinctive parallels. There are none here.
How many “general ritual meals” in Palestine were led by a Jewish “Messiah”? Not just any Messiah but the leader of the third largest sect of Judaism at that time, namely, the Essenes…whose teachings are later found in Paul’s letters! There are many divergent lines coming together here, all of which cannot be described here.
If you and I gout for lunch together, no big deal. But if the Jewish Messiah joins us then the meal becomes much more important. The Jewish-christians apparently thought so too.
By definition, all of them.
The Messiah will be a Jew and will run every meal any Jew runs. So the messiah can always be described doing this, for someone, somewhere.
But also, the Messiah isn’t “running” this meal. The priest is. You cut those words out of your quote.
There simply isn’t any parallel. These are completely different meals doing completely different things.
Please provide a reference from the first century BC for any Messiah reaching for the bread and wine.
If you can that would be interesting.
If you cannot then my point stands, the DSS contains the earliest reference to the Lord’s Supper in which the Messiah reaches for the bread in a Messianic banquet. It is this Messiah that Paul could be referring to in his letters.
Moreover, in Obsolete you write,
Where did they get their ideas? Right from the Dead Sea Scrolls in which everything in the Hebrew Torah was interpreted and whose leader was allegedly stoned and hung on a tree for blasphemy. Does that count as “crucified”? Hung on a tree? Could Paul be referring to a crucified christ who interpreted Hebrew scriptures to be about himself? Yes! It is all there.
And irrelevant. None of what I just said requires any such thing.
I think you are disingenuously ignoring the actual logic of my argument and the actual evidence it depends on. Which signals you are immune to evidence and reason. So further discussion would be pointless.
Case in point:
I don’t know what passage in what text you are referring to here. This sounds like tea leaf reading. Textual pareidolia. Not sound textual inference. That may explain why you have such strange and illogical ideas. But I can’t help you if that’s the case.
Current understanding of the Dead Sea scrolls, according to archaeological investigation, indicates that they were put in those caves because documents that mention the deity but are no longer desired could not be burnt or tossed on a trash midden, and had to be placed somewhere respectfully. Religious trash from all over Palestine was deposited there and forgotten. They are good for historians, but reveal religious thought that had been graduated from.
That explanation of the cave contents is debated. There are popular alternative theories. But it’s as good as any.
Have you ever read them?
IMO, the Gospels were “inspired” by Plutarch’s Lives in which he wrote “biographs” of Romulus (as founder of Rome) and other non-historical characters.
This is all clearly true. The real issue now is addressing the explosion of claims about “the real Jesus” that are all over the place. And by “real Jesus” I mean claims about Jesus being someone or something other than the claims of the traditional account. Everyone has their own pet theory.
But, I liken this to the situation prior to the publication of Darwin’s Origin of Species. From the 1600s up until Darwin dozens of different proposals were put forward attempting to provide a “natural” explanation for the development of life on earth. Lamarck’s being the most famous of course, but there were many. This occurred because many people could see that the traditional view couldn’t be correct, but no one had yet put forward an convincing solution.
The old guard, of course, used the fact hat many people were throwing out ideas that were wild or provably wrong to defend their creationist position, which was invalid as well. That’s the stage we are currently in. We are currently in the stage just prior to the publication of The Origin of Species.
Now, I like to think my my new book will be that new paradigm setting publication, but we’ll see.
Right when summed up the position of the advocates (apologists), of historicity is “yes there is no objective historical evidence for Jesus of Nazareth (and in fact far better evidence for far less successful messiah claimants of the time), and yes he was almost certainly a nobody whose life was of no consequence, but this dude just had to exist because there’s literally no other reasonable explanation for the myths invented about him otherwise”.
(Though they will never put it that bluntly in reality, or openly say that, but by reading them carefully that is their actual position now.)
I’m not convinced of the ”moderate” reconstruction of the testimonium flavianum, because it’s still positive enough to have earned a mention by Origen, who was familiar with book 18 of Antiquities. The lament over Josephus not accepting Jesus as the Messiah was because the historian proclaimed Vespasian to be the Messiah to save his skin, not because of an earlier version of the testimonium. If you remove the passages about Jesus, it makes more sense because the section was talking about calamities that had afflicted the Jews under Pilate. What do you think?
Correct. It’s worse even, because even a hostile passage Origen would be compelled to mention and prebunk, and all the reconstructed versions deviate more from Josephan discourse and literary style, and thus are inherently less likely than even the one we have.
But see for example Allen’s New and Illogical Theory of the Testimonium Flavianum, Goldberg’s Attempt to Rehabilitate the Testimonium Flavianum, and Exposing T.C. Schmidt’s Oxford Apologetics for the Testimonia Flaviana.
“you can’t admit nothing can be known about Jesus, and then claim you know Jesus existed.”
This is the big issue of course. And I do attempt to address this directly in my book. I think the biggest problem many people have is the idea that “surely so many people wouldn’t have believed that Jesus was real if he really wasn’t!”
That, as far as I’ve seen in all of my discussions with people on this topic, is the big hang-up. This is why the book I was working on (and will now resume work on) deals extensively with Roman prophecy and explaining just what the Romans actually believed and how the Romans determined what was and was not true. And when you see that, it becomes clear that the Romans really had no idea how to separate fact from fiction or truth from fraud. They were egregiously misled about so, so many things. The book I’m working on is filled with examples of things that Romans believed and how they understood prophecy, compared to our modern understanding of the world and what actually happend even in their own time.
I think many people just can’t get past the idea that so many people, from 2,000 years ago to today, could be so misled, and so committed to something that doesn’t even have any basis in reality.
On my recent youtube video about the non-existence of Jesus a comment was: “Surely you can’t believe that all of those people died for nothing. Why would so many people have been willing to die for Jesus if we wasn’t real?” They were talking about accounts of martyrdom, etc. I referred him to Candida Moss’ book. But that’s the big stumbling block for many people.
I think many people can make peace with the idea that someone inspired people to believe in something, even if the person wasn’t really divine, but they just can’t conceive of people simply devoting their life to the worship of someone that wasn’t even real in the first place.
Of coursed this is ridiculous, because Christianity as we know it didn’t come into existence until the 2nd century. No matter what, the beliefs of the church fathers were based purely on the reading of writings about Jesus. The writings are what convinced the people who founded the Christianity we know, no matter how you slice it.
We can clearly see in history that people devote their lives to mutually exclusive causes. So this clearly isn’t proof of anything, yet people often treat it as if it were. I find that deeply puzzling. My only explanation is that people either don’t know, or don’t want to know, about such information outside their own bubble.
We need only look to the Trump cult to find tens of millions openly unable or unwilling to distinguish fact from fiction. (The military cult might be unique in carefully identifying and documenting facts, but then aggressively ignoring them.) And, we need only look to U.S. mass shooters for examples of people eager to die for a lie. Rome depended on a mass of slaves everywhere in its empire, while the US, relying on automated transport of their work product, tries to keep its opposite national borders–except to handle food. The Roman world was not as different from our own as we like to think.
An important difference is that vanishingly few Romans had access to sound epistemology, where we just choose to ignore it.
I guess I’d say that we still do have an access problem in that people often are not taught to critically think in schools and there are a number of reasons why, i.e pressure from government, pressure from certain parent groups, pressure from religious institutions etc.
Rightists have always suppressed education, but most Americans can find the books needed in a local library, even a school library. It does take some curiosity and initiative, but millions understand and are eager to explain .
As someone on the left myself, I don’t think only rightists are guilty of it (although they are by far the worst), I think the actual far left (who are fairly small) do similar things and there is a problem in some university campuses. I think Richard’s article about “How left is too far left” is good, a concrete example I can give is how Lindsay Shepherd was treated and she’s one of the few cases of someone in the contemporary right, who I feel a bit sorry for as she genuinely was mistreated by far left academics.
I think the problem is that critical thinking and the things necessary for it, like free speech don’t come naturally to people. Many if not most people have an instinct to suppress what they see as taboos, indeed, I think the US was the first country to have a specific legal guarantee of free speech for its citizens, as opposed to its legislature and that’s pretty recent history.
If you look at the debate surrounding Jason Arday it has been rather partisan (you might not have followed it if you’re from outside the UK)). It turned out he had basically plagiarised large sections of his PHD, this was discovered after he was appointed to be Professor of Sociology of Education in Cambridge and tragically he killed himself. The thing is lots of people on the left leapt to his defence immediately, in part because one of the guys who accused him of plagiarism, Nathan Cofnas, is an utterly repulsive figure.
The thing is, it’s not only Cofnas who was saying it, plenty of people with no obvious connection to the hard/far right were saying it too, even some rather left wing people like Aaron Bastani and the evidence does check out (imo), large sections do seem virtually identical to other people’s work.
And the thing is, there are far better ways to combat Cofnas’s BS. Cofnas believes most black academics shouldn’t have their positions, people should counter him by showing him just how many good black academics there are (i.e people like John Mcwhorter in linguistics, good luck proving his PHD to be plagiarised, the same for David Olusoga). In the UK, people from ethnic minorities out-achieve the white population academically, once you take social class into account.
And instead of promoting someone like Arday, Cambridge could have chosen lots of other people who are black, autistic and have achieved a lot academically, there are plenty of them.
I don’t think there is any serious denial or debate that Arday plagiarised. (Though there is a debate as to whenever his plagiarism was as severe and extensive as Cofnas claimed, and whenever it was genuinely the result of mimicry, (and other autistic symptoms/features), – rather than a malicious, criminal attempt at fraud.)
“And instead of promoting someone like Arday, Cambridge could have chosen lots of other people who are black, autistic and have achieved a lot academically, there are plenty of them.”
Right Cambridge got this wrong, that’s it – Arday shouldn’t have been there (regardless of the caveats mentioned above about his case). A tragic outcome from which hopefully Cambridge (and others) learn from, and improve.
No need to make a cultural war from it however, and use one case as though it represents the overall picture.
Indeed, that Cambridge also hired an open Nazi tells us they are completely incompetent and inconsistent in their hiring process. There is some informative insight on this point here (a conversation that is surprisingly light on unserious trollery).
This story is also on point (with a comparative example of a white professor who committed worse plagiarism to no consequence; while Arday’s offenses were not as egregious as reported and might not sustain the academic argument against him). Odds are, Arday was a snap hire to clean up perceptions of race bias, so that ironically centrist conservatives attempting to look liberal fucked this up. He was, after all, really qualified and really doing a high-index amount of publication, and his gaffes were relatively minor (e.g. none of his studies have been retracted).
Cambridge still has less than 0.3% of its professoriate black. Which is certainly not the proportion of qualified applicants (measured by PhDs in the UK it is six times too low). The hiring committee thus fell into the seduction of exaggerated stats rather than just hiring someone competent. That’s the problem with a school that needs its prestige to rest on absurd qualifications rather than suitable ones. But Arday’s legend was 95% real. So it’s not a simple matter of their being conned.
He was hounded by the press in a way that was out of proportion with what he actually did. I think it’s true that if he was a White academic, who had been caught faking things in his PHD, it would have at best, been a small column in a local newspaper, maybe in one or two nationals. That much is true.
Because of who he was, the right wing press leapt on it and I think there’s no doubt that Cofnas just wanted to get rid of a senior black academic. It’s worth saying that the British right wing press are some of the most vicious news organisations in the world.
As for Cambridge, it does need to change a lot in some areas, one thing that has got better is that the undergrad intake is much less classist than it was 20 years ago, it was about 50% educated in state schools (public schools for Americans) in the 2000s, now it´s about 70%, but it’s still got some way to go.
Truth.
Oh I´m not saying it’s only that case, far from it, it was just an example I had to mind.
I think journalist, Jon Ronson, has done some pretty good work on the culture wars, both in the 60 and 70s and the new phase now, he´s always worth listening to or reading.
One case that I think is quite illustrative is this one:
https://www.fire.org/news/dick-gregory-responds-students-offended-title-his-autobiography.
In this case students actually demanded that someone resign, because the Dean in Seattle recommended someone read Dick Gregory’s book “Nigger”, which is actually an anti-racist book. They demanded censorship simply because of the word used with no attention paid to context. Incidentally, I absolutely recommend you read the book if you haven’t, it´s a really good read and pretty insightful.
And FIRE have documented lots of cases of censorship on both the left and the right. There is a huge amount of attempts to censor Pro-Palestinian speakers (and has been for a long time, Norm Finkelstein and Noam Chomsky have plenty of experience of this, i.e talks cancelled, in Finkelstein´s case denial of tenure etc). Also, lots of GOP state governments, i.e Florida, as we know are trying to ban pro-LGBT materials on campus and discussing critical race theory.
You have it from the left too, though, you have people who try to force people into believing critical race theory, rather than explaining what the ideas are and going through possible critiques (myself, I think a lot of CRT concepts are good, but no sociological theory is perfect). I don’t think forcing people to believe things is generally a good idea, in part, because it doesn’t teach people to think and they can just change with the next cultural shift. You can see this in what happened in lots of ex-Stalinist countries, like Hungary and Poland, where there has been a big Catholic revival since the regime fell.
Depends what’s meant by *cancelling*.
What you could call soft cancelling is the sort we see when companies like YouTube ban people like Russell Brand – facing serious charges and accusations of rape, and sexual assault – or people who literally identify themselves as Nazis and such.
In other words that sort usually comes as the result of public pressure, and private companies acting accordingly – and is not the result of government action and interference.
When the right wing, or far right does it (*canceling*), it’s usually by using the government to directly ban the production, sale (or otherwise distribution) of said material, or directly using the state to pressure universities and institutions to cancel and blacklist certain speakers and/or debates (as you say).
The locus classicus is MacCarthyism and the Hollywood Black List.
That was the first concerted industrialization of cancel culture.
Yep. The fact that Google exists and could correct many of their misconceptions not only hinges on basic research skills that, yes, actually, not everyone has (it’s really easy to forget how hard it was to do something before you learned it) but also depends on having the habits to do that in the first place and then on actually trusting what you read to some degree instead of just balking because it disagrees with you so it must be false. In reality, it takes people a few times of being really clearly caught out on a specific falsehood they could have corrected, and really having their nose put into it, before it makes the ones who have the values to actually care start to realize they were lied to.
Critical thinking absolutely is a learned skill and none of us are perfect at it.
It’s going to be worse in a culture war too, than outside one, imo, when people are very strongly emotionally attached to viewpoints, they tend to think less clearly.
Hmmmm, I wonder if that’s why people start culture wars? 🙂
It´s an interesting one isn’t it, a bit of a chicken and egg situation. I think the US one has definitely been perpetuated intentionally, if not started deliberately.
In the UK, the right tends to copy a lot of things the US right has done, especially in the media, and really, I would say the UK didn’t have culture war politics to nearly the same extent, until now and that is totally intentional.
The thing is, it´s really silly. People´s values in the cosmpolitan cities, like London and Manchester and rural England, and the “Red Wall” aren’t actually that different, apart from maybe immigration. People aren’t terribly religious anywhere, most people of all social classes accept homosexuality, there’s qualified acceptance for transpeople (though the right wing offensive has had some success there) and most people have no issue with abortion.
Spain has had the longest culture war in Europe, I would argue, going on in one way or another since after the Napoleonic wars and it´s basically a reactionary vs progressive one. The thing is, in Spain, the progressives have won so many of the battles, i.e gay marriage, democracy, abortion, trans rights, all of which have high public support, that basically the right have to pander to the people still under the illusion that church schools are always better than secular ones, anti-immigrant bigotry and the idiots who think that any deal with mainstream Basque nationalists is the equivalent of promoting ETA.
The thing is, the pretense of keeping it all up, means that the centre-right to right PP can’t do a coalition with the centre-left PSOE, but may well do one with the far right Vox, even though they’re actually closer on most things.
Any plans to write an article on dating 1 Peter like you’ve done for 1 C and Paul’s letters? You wrote the below for this article (https://www.richardcarrier.info/archives/25118) but I think it would be worthwhile if this could be elaborated. You’ve written about 1 Peter in other places but from what I’ve seen not more than a paragraph or two in any one place and never going into detail like for the aforementioned writings, although I could have simply missed such writings.
“Finally, something else just recently occurred worth a notice: Elizabeth A. Myers, inIntertextual Borrowing between 1 Peter and Hebrews: Probability of Literary Dependence and the Most Likely Direction of Borrowing (Pistos Ktistes, 2020), develops a sophisticated and credible statistical argument that the book of Hebrews used 1 Peter as a source. This is not a trivial observation. I already noted in OHJ my suspicion that 1 Peter might be authentic. Given that I am also certain Hebrews can only have been written before the late 60s A.D. (for the same reasons as 1 Clement: see How We Can Know 1 Clement Was Actually Written in the 60s AD), this would establish that 1 Peter was written even earlier, probably at the same time as the authentic Pauline epistles (50s A.D.); it could even be the earliest Christian document surviving. This would also argue for it being authentic (since I have also long noted the claim that Peter was illiterate and not a fully educated Rabbi on a par with Paul has never been credible: OHJ, pp. 263–64, 440, 528–31). Which creates a real problem for historicity: if Peter himself wrote 1 Peter (or anyone in Paul’s generation did), then everyone knew Peter himself never met Jesus, but only knew of his death from scripture and revelation (e.g. 1 Peter 1:10–11, 1 Peter 1:20; probably also 1 Peter 5:1, martus more generally meaningtestifier, cf. Hebrews 3:5), and that he, like Paul, evidently didn’t know anything about human authorities having killed Jesus (e.g. 1 Peter 2:13–14), and only knew of Jesus ministering to spirits (1 Peter 3:17-22), not people on Earth (that’s never mentioned; apart, again, from scripture and revelation). This would all but prove Jesus never existed. If even Peter himself could only call up evidence for Jesus (his deeds, sayings, sufferings) from scripture and revelation, then that had to be the only evidence there was.”
That is so far all I can say. But I do have Myers’ volume on my desk and plan to finish reading it and blog about its merits. At the moment (only at a skim) I do not expect anything fabulous. The kind of argument she is making is very unlikely to do more than hint in a direction, which is far from proving it. Even her own calculation has this at 80–90% which is not stellar, and she is plugging so many factors into that I can’t yet vouch even for it being that high.
So I don’t know that my complete review of her arguments will move the needle beyond that paragraph. The idea that 1 Peter is authentic and early is most likely always going to be hypothetical, with evidence but no proof. Unless we discover some direct evidence (e.g. a lost pre-war Christian letter quoting and referring to it), which has an effective probability of zero (I very much doubt any surviving Christian text from that period remains to be found).
However, I could find her estimate of 80–90% is too conservative and that her case is actually stronger than she avers. Or I could confirm her estimate is reasonable, which is not a trivial outcome. To be able to say it is 80% likely 1 Peter is pre-war would have a cascade effect on the probabilities. Not the slam dunk one that we’d want. But measurable. I’d have to run the numbers if it comes to that point. Which I’ll do in my forthcoming blog.
What makes dating it hard (or harder) in your opinion? Can it be firmly dated to pre-70 C.E. at a minimum?
To date something the thing either has to say when it was written (this doesn’t), or be referred to by something else we can date (which sets a terminus ante quem) but 1 Peter is never referred to before mid-2nd century, or refer to something else we can date (which sets a terminus a quo) but 1 Peter never refers to anything (other than pre-Christian literature), or contain content that cannot have been included before or after a certain event (like the Jewish War) but 1 Peter doesn’t contain any such thing; or else bear period-datable features (and 1 Peter lacks any such material).
All that exists is material used by Hebrews, or that 1 Peter used from Hebrews. which is why Myers can only try to date 1 Peter by this information. But direction of influence is not inherently evident in that, requiring a complex probabilistic analysis. So, there just is no way to date 1 Peter. Unless she succeeds.
The consensus is that it is a second century forgery, but apart from knowing it existed by the time of c. 150 AD (as after that it is referenced), the reasons are weak: (1) it seems alien to everything we have from the 1st century, while other alien shit shows up in the 2nd century (this would be a better argument if it was alien in the same way as that other shit, as in the case of the Pastorals, which look like Lukan-period writing and concerns; but 1 Peter fits nothing else we have) and (2) “Peter was illiterate and couldn’t write good Greek like this,” which is actually not a credible premise (I explain why in chapter four of Paradigm).
The Pastorals can be dated post-war because they can be stylometrically proved to be forgeries, and that couldn’t circulate when Paul was still alive; and their similarities to second century literature makes them likely date there. The same can be said of 2 Peter, which can be shown stylometrically not to be by the same author as 1 Peter, and to be very similar to second century trends not found in the first (e.g. Ignatius etc.), yet it refers to 1 Peter, so it post-dates that, and fits best in the second century. We have no such arguments to deploy for 1 Peter. So the consensus on that is far weaker than for 2 Peter.
And that’s just all there is. We can’t get any more precise than “maybe a forgery, maybe second century; or maybe neither.”
That’s why Myers’ study is so singular.
I’m somewhat surprised you didn’t mention the letter being consistent with a celestial Jesus unlike later forged letters, and its not mentioning advanced hierarchical church positions like the pastorals, as almost smoking gun evidence it’s at least ~100% not a 2nd century forgery, if not pre 70-75 ce, basically pre-Markan or pre-gospel generally. Basically the same type of argument you’d make for a letter like 1 Clement. I know 1 Clement is like 4 times longer and has more evidence from which to draw a conclusion but I think that methodology is still valid for a shorter letter like 1 Peter.
I did mention that.
That’s the consequence of the letter being authentic, not anything we can date it by.
It would be circular to argue “this agrees with mythicism; early texts will be mythicist; therefore this is an early text; therefore this text proves mythicism.” That’s invalid.
You need to independently establish it is early before you can use it as evidence mythicism is early.
My mistake for not making it clearer, but I wasn’t using 1 Peter to make an argument for mythicism, but instead once mythicism/celestial Jesus has been established as the earlier Christian belief by independent evidence, such as Paul’s six letters and background knowledge that doesn’t include 1 Peter, why can’t that be used subsequently to show 1 Peter was early? That’s what I meant. I don’t believe that would be circular logic.
Yes, that’s a circular argument, as explained.
If 1 Peter was written in the 2nd century it could simply be a scripturalist forgery written in a context when its Gospel referents were presumed. While that is not a high probability, it could still be more probable or no less probable than it being an early mythicist text. So its features really depend for their interpretation on when it was written. So when it was written must be determined independently. Otherwise it’s a toss up and therefore cannot be dated this way.
Undoubtedly earlier sources like Paul are silent on the earthly Jesus. You notice 1 Peter is also silent on the early Jesus. P(e/h) is higher for h=early than h=late, because with h=late you would expect a mention of the earthly Jesus. If we give toss up odds of P(h=early) 50% we still end with a higher posterior prob for an early date. How is that circular. The hypothesis h is that 1 Peter is early, not that h=mythicism. Mythicism (or more precisely silence on the earthly Jesus, which is the language I should’ve used in earlier comments) is simply a trait of other early texts that were determined to be early by other means. Unlike Paul’s letters’ idiosyncrasies though silence on earthly Jesus by itself can’t be used to date to a particular decade, only pre-70/80/100 CE depending on how conservative you want to be.
That’s just stating mathematically the same circular argument.
You can’t duplicate evidence in b or e in any Bayesian equation. But using the hypothesis of ahistoricity to get 1 Peter early exhausts that information. You cannot then re-enter “1 Peter is early” to get the probability of ahistoricity up. You can only do one or the other. Either P(ahistoricity) commutes to derive P(early1Peter) or P(early1Peter) commutes to derive P(ahistoricity). You cannot do both at the same time. You have to pick one.
So, for example, right now, if P(historicity) is 0.25 (as I find the top margin to be in Paradigm), then P(early1Peter) is (by your argument) –> 0.25. And that’s that. You can do nothing more with 1 Peter. Its probability of being early goes up in conjunction to the probability of historicity. But the probability of historicity does not change.
If, by contrast, we had independent evidence that P(early1Peter) ≈ 100%, and early1Peter being a fact has an upper bound (a fortiori) likelihood ratio of (let’s just say for the sake of argument for now) 0.20 / 1 (historicity/ahistoricity), thus favoring ahistoricity 5/1, then would P(historicity|early1Peter) change from 1 in 4 to near 1 in 16 (final odds 1/3 × 1/5 = 1/15 = 1 in 16 = 6%). Of course events as common as 1 in every 16 times are still not implausible, so historicity remains respectably possible just more doubtable. But that’s a significant effect. Doubt should go up substantially.
But if P(early1Peter) = 50% (if it’s 50/50 whether it is early) then we get no effect 50% of the time, and the 1/5 effect the other 50% of the time. But if only half the time we feel the effect, it’s a tossup whether 1 Peter would change the probability or not. That’s functionally no effect. (These do not combine into a total probability because the probability that evidence exists does not commute to the probability it was predicted to exist: see Paradigm 185.)
Now if P(early1Peter) = 80% then it has an effect roughly twice as often as no effect, so its effect is roughly half, at around 3 to 5 rather than 1 to 5. Because at 100% we’d get the full effect of 5:1 while at 51% we’d get only half a percent of that effect, and at 80% we get 60% of the effect (because 80% consumes 60% of the probability space between 50% and 100%, the space encompassing no effect and full effect). And 0.6 × 5 = 3.
So if Myers is right, my current upper margin odds on Jesus of 1:3, for a probability of 1 in 4 (25%), becomes 1/3 × 3/5 = 3/15 = 1:5, for a probability of 1 in 6 (≈ 17%). Not quite as substantial as dropping to 1 in 16. But still a hit.
However, that attenuates to the probability that 1Peter is early. Which has to be known independently of the hypothesis we are proposing to explain that. So we need Myers, or something like. Otherwise the probability that 1Peter is early is simply derivative of the probability that Jesus didn’t exist, and therefore cannot be determinative of the probability that Jesus didn’t exist.
You got me thinking (and that is dangerous, ha ha!)—if I can independently establish an early date for mythicism?…and I can! Double check me, though.
One of the most popular books in the Dead Sea Scrolls is the “Book of Jubilees” (also considered authoritative by first century christians). And the premise of the book is that the mythical narrative of the exodus correlates with the end of time. In fact, only forty [Jubilee] years remain for the cosmos from when mythical Joshua (or Jesus) begins leading his chosen ones to the promised land. Clearly, the “promised land” is the end goal or final destination and mythical Joshua or Jesus is leading them there.
From our perspective, the forty Jubilee years remaining after Joshua has no correlation with real time BUT jewish-christians two thousand years ago would not have known that. They may have expected the myth to become reality followed by the apocalypse, new world, etc.
Hence, we get Mark writing allegorically about the appearance of Joshua or Jesus (representing Paul’s life and teachings) with an imminent expectation of the apocalypse…just as the Book of Jubilees mythically represented Joshua, son of Nun (the Hebrew Savior Type) doing at the close of time.
The Book of Jubilees should qualify as the first century BC use of mythical Jesus at the end of time, IMO. Paul’s life and teachings was subsequently believed to be that reality by some resulting in Go Mark’s composition validating (in high symbolism and figure) what they believed the Book of Jubilees allegedly predicted to happen.
I don’t follow the logic here.
Chronological expectations can produce (and did produce) real pretenders, so it does not make mythicism more likely (I already cover this in Historicity, early Elements in chapter four: note all the Elements across chapters four and five are equally likely on mythicism or historicity and therefore cannot be evidence for mythicism—any more than for historicity).
Re: Jesus Son of Gamaliel vs. Jesus Son of Damnaeus: Could the Hillel–Shammai conflict preserve two competing dramatizations of messianic prophecy, perhaps reflecting an older Elohist–Yahwist division? I’m testing whether a Rome-supported Hillelite/Elohist program dramatized the fulfillment of Micah 4:8–10 followed by 5:2: Mother and Daughter Jerusalem return, give birth, and the promised ruler emerges—the sequence perhaps enacted in Josephus’s Jerusalem celebration of 37 CE and later represented by Hillel’s “Jesus son of Gamaliel.” Could the opposing Shammaite/Yahwist program have created a different ceremony, rewriting Genesis 22 by replacing Abraham’s ram with Jesus—the Son of Yahweh as the final sacrifice—and claiming fulfillment of Micah 5:2 while eliminating the Mother-and-Daughter fulfillment of Micah 4? If Jesus son of Damnaeus represented the Shammaite/Yahwist side and Jesus son of Gamaliel the Hillelite/Elohist side, are we looking at two competing ceremonies, both invented—one Rome-supported and centered on Mother, Daughter, and Son; the other Rome-opposed and centered on the sacrificed Son?
Alas, possibiliter ergo probabiliter is a fallacy. Without evidence (for prior or likelihood), millions of mutually exclusive things are possible, and therefore the odds that your one model is true is millions to one against. So we have to move on. We can only know what we know. That’s what my studies have been determining: how much can we actually know. The rest we have to chuck, as unknown or unknowable.
Not quite sure how to approach this viewpoint that Jesus really didn’t exist, as there are so many lines of evidence that point to a singular person having a large impact on enough people to leave an imprint on historical records, introduce a new paradigm of what it means to be religious, transform a performative believer’s understanding of blind observance of law to an appreciation of intent (spirit vs letter of law), and open new vistas on the panorama of how we view society, the individual, and the divine.
Specifically, consider how Paula Fredriksen, Bart Ehrman, and E.P. Sanders cover overlapping ground, but diverge sharply in how they interpret the origins and evolution of Christian belief.
To suggest that these different scholars’ lines of research do not point to a real person requires a leap of faith high enough to jump over mountains of converging evidence, and invites us to ignore the psychology and sociology of how transformative ideas, transmitted through a singular individual, redirect human affairs and open new heavens of understanding.
How do you propose to deal with these scholarly positions?:
Paula Fredriksen
————————————————————————————————-
Historical framing
Early Christianity is a Jewish apocalyptic movement within Second Temple Judaism. Jesus’ followers remained Jewish and expected God’s imminent intervention.
Jesus’ identity
Jesus was a human Messiah chosen by God, not divine in the later Trinitarian sense. His followers saw him as God’s agent for Israel’s restoration.
Paul’s role
Paul extended a Jewish messianic message to Gentiles while remaining
rooted in Jewish covenant theology.
The split from Judaism
A slow, political and social divergence after the destruction of the Temple. Christianity did not begin as a separate religion.
Sources and method
Emphasizes Jewish context, apocalyptic worldview, and continuity with Israel.
Tone and goal
Corrects modern anachronisms by restoring the Jewish worldview of Jesus’ earliest followers.
Bart Ehrman
————————————————————————————————-
Historical framing
Jesus was an apocalyptic prophet, but post‑Easter reinterpretation transformed him into a divine figure through theological evolution.
Jesus’ identity
Jesus was gradually deified. Early Christians believed he was exalted at
resurrection, later came to see him as pre‑existent and fully divine.
Paul’s role
Paul reframed Jesus’ death as universal atonement and detached faith from Jewish law, shaping Gentile Christianity.
The split from Judaism
A theological rupture driven by belief in Jesus’ divinity, creating early separation from Judaism.
Sources and method
Focuses on textual development, manuscript changes, and doctrinal evolution.
Tone and goal
Explains how belief in Jesus’ divinity historically emerged and diverged
from modern orthodoxy.
E. P. Sanders
————————————————————————————————-
Historical framing
Early Christianity arose as a Jewish reform and renewal movement. Jesus
operated entirely within Second Temple Judaism, and his followers saw themselves as Jews.
Jesus’ identity
Jesus was a Jewish teacher and prophet announcing God’s coming kingdom. Sanders treats him as a historical figure whose actions fit Jewish expectations of restoration.
Paul’s role
Paul reinterpreted Jesus within a Jewish framework but created a new pattern of religion by opening the movement to Gentiles without requiring full Torah observance.
The split from Judaism
The separation was gradual and driven by social and historical pressures, especially the destruction of the Temple. No sharp early theological break.
Sources and method
Prioritizes historical reconstruction, focusing on what Jesus likely said and did based on earliest sources. Emphasizes context over later doctrine.
Tone and goal
Aims to recover the historical Jesus and the lived reality of early Christian communities, describing what Jesus and Paul actually did rather than later theological interpretations.
First:
That’s actually not true. When you actually check, that claim always falls apart. That’s why I changed from a historicist to a mythicist.
I checked all the threads in a peer reviewed academic study. You need to consult it. It answers every question you have.
Second:
AI is banned on my website. This looks like AI slop. Don’t post garbage like this here again. I will ban you.
Think for yourself. Do the work yourself. Then you will know the answers to your own questions.
“That’s actually not true. When you actually check, that claim always falls apart. That’s why I changed from a historicist to a mythicist.
I checked all the threads in a peer reviewed academic study. You need to consult it. It answers every question you have.”
So the link sent me to your book ‘On the Historicity of Jesus: Why We Might Have Reason for Doubt’.
What I found was completely in line with someone such as yourself with a biography that notes “He is also a noted defender of scientific and moral realism, Bayesian reasoning, and historical methods”.
In fact, you have used these tools to establish reasonable doubt as to the historicity of Jesus, just as the title of your book states.
And how you did this by using Bayesian reasoning is most interesting, besides being the most relevant to your claim of Jesus not being historical.
So my understanding of your Bayesian calculations shows that your results depend crucially on 2 items:
1) that it is appropriate to apply the Rank-Raglan hero pattern to Jesus
2) that Cephas is not Peter
In fact, in the book you openly admit that Rank-Raglan is the source of the largest mathematical term in supporting the conclusion for a mythical Jesus. In other words, it contributes the highest percentage to Jesus being a myth.
Changing this term changes the outcome of this probability.
Would you agree that changing your priors based on Rank-Raglan, by accepting mainstream scholars rejection of it as being relevant to Jesus, and by accepting that Cephas is Peter, then Bayesian reasoning supports a historical Jesus?
Since you recognize that R-R is the largest contributor to a mythical Jesus, I assume you ran the numbers and are aware that a historical Jesus hinges on Rank-Raglan.
This results then in the following take-away:
The myth/historical battle is essentially a debate over the Rank-Raglan hero pattern’s applicability to Jesus.
Which leads to this paradox: if you accept R-R you already start with the premise that Jesus is a myth and that everything written about him fits the literary hero/myth pattern.
Obviously this is a circular argument, and the weak point of using Bayesian reasoning with these priors.
PS I followed your link to What did Paul know about the life and teachings of Jesus? – stephenblogs for the Cephas-Peter equivalency. Since you referenced it, you then also read how the author of that blog supports a historical Jesus, as do mainstream scholars such as Ehrman, Dunn, Hurtado, Fredriksen, Casey, and Bauckham, who all, by the way, also reject the Rank-Raglan hero pattern, each of course with his own reasoning.
I have no idea where you get this idea about my thinking “that Cephas is not Peter.” And the RR class only sets a reasonable prior that would easily be overcome with evidence so it is not a threat to historicity. This is all explained in the study.
So, will you consult it or ignore it and thus keep making stuff up like you just did?
You will either read the peer reviewed literature and know what you are talking about, or not and not know what you are talking about.
Your excuses don’t matter. The one you choose is the story of you. And that’s that.
Wow, that was… dishonest as fuck, dude.
Rank-Raglan criteria don’t prove a person is mythical. As Richard suspected and later research proved, there are people who meet many R-R criteria who aren’t mythical. Many historical people are children of kings, were born despite difficulty in conception, were reputed to be sons of gods, etc. etc.
So there is no circularity. Not a single Rank-Raglan criterion is “Is mythical”. That would be real goddamn stupid if it were.
Why would you say something this egregiously illogical? Does the truth not matter to you at all?
I think more likely (s)he’s lazy and irresponsible rather than dishonest. This reads as someone who did no research and knows nothing about what any of my arguments are. They’re probably getting all this from some internet trollpologist and then, being gullible (as most Christians are), just believed what (s)he heard. And then comes here to stick their foot in their mouth. I see this folly so often I can often spot it.
But that’s still dishonest.
Because not admitting that from the outset, not saying “Hey, I actually don’t know much about this, but this seems to me to be a possible problem”, implies a certitude and competence that the person who is offering it knows they do not have.
And, these days, I am done splitting that hair. If your stated epistemic certainty or your rhetorical position can’t match a competent epistemology’s output, you’re lying on some level. In particular, such a person is violating the golden rule, because they know damn well they would feel misled and find contempt in someone running their mouth with unearned confidence.
And that’s a fair take.
There’s growing skepticism in the field generally about what can be reliably reconstructed about Jesus at all, and if there is basically nothing, then mythicism is pretty plausible, if you don’t have at least a clear, non interpolated mention of him in a reasonably close source (for example if “James the brother of the Lord” in Paul was phrased less ambiguously).
One thing a lot of people confuse (and you’re in good company, Bart Ehrman gets this wrong) is that it isn’t a straightforwards matter of number of the number of mentions increasing the likelihood of someone’s existence. You have to consider the nature of the sources you have and myths like the Gospels are just about the worst source you can have for working out whether someone existed, like nobody nowadays seriously thinks Rome was founded by Romulus, or that the Trojan war (if it even happened) was fought over Helen of Troy.
Letters can be pretty good evidence for this kind of question, but notice how pretty much everything in Paul is focussed on very esoteric things and there’s no mention of Jesus’s ministry. It’s actually very close reading of the most useful sources that is key here and there is no unambiguous mention of an earthly Jesus.
One thing those summaries miss out, is that it’s important to think how Peter knew Jesus, take this passage from Corinthians:
To me, as to Richard, the most straightfowards reading is that everybody saw Jesus in visions, there’s nothing in the language that differentiates the experiences of any of the Apostles and it’s interesting that Paul didn’t write about Jesus meeting the Apostles before his death. That doesn’t rule out historicity, it’s possible Peter didn’t actually know Jesus, but he was a real person and Peter met him in visions, it’s also not out of the question that Paul is doing this for propagandistic reasons, only mentioning post-death meetings to put himself on the same level as the other Apostles, but it is weird, isn’t it? And if the Apostles had met Jesus irl, this would be known in the church, so Paul would likely have had to address it.
It’s a small bit of data, but a very important one as it casts a lot of doubt on the way the founding has been seen.
Hercules was so important that people fought over whether he had left them land. Not real.
Moses is viewed as the founder of the nation and the giver of their laws. Not real.
Romulus was viewed as the founder of an empire. Not real.
Fictional kings, founders, etc. of massive importance are omnipresent. Their deeds are recorded.
The question is, when? By whom? In what context?
Jesus is not contemporaneously attested in his lifetime or even all that soon after.
Historicists argue that Jesus was probably what you can imagine he would be if you stripped the triumphalist propaganda from the story: a minor counter-cultural cult leader.
Yeah, a lot of those Life of Brian guys probably did exist.
Doesn’t mean you can know that. Or use it as an ironclad assumption.
These people act so hysterically when they review your work. I really do think there is no stronger evidence for your theory than the type of responses you get from professional historians. Tells you they’re only protecting a dogma or an article of faith that’s dear to them like with this guy. Yes, the entire field goes along with this, but you shouldn’t take it personally. And it should be expected. They are protecting a dogma and in some cases like this guy probably, a personal article of faith. They are not evidence- or logic-based.
Example from a reply to one of my recent videos: “Zero chance Christianity exists if Jesus never existed. All the perceived advantages of embracing it vanish if he never rose from the dead and thus never existed. Moreover no one would make up a religion so entirely dependent upon historical realities”
A complete inability for people to comprehend the nature of “belief”. Of course it is a matter of people believing that these things happened. But some people are just incapable of wrapping their head around this. For many people, the idea that people would believe something that didn’t really happen just isn’t comprehensible.
Dear Dr. Carrier,
If you don’t mind, I’d like to ask you a question. From a historical perspective, isn’t it more likely that the birth narratives in Matthew and Luke, while including the Bethlehem prophecy in the Old Testament, are an attempt to forcibly superimpose information about Nazareth? If Jesus were a legend, the Nazareth issue wouldn’t have existed from the beginning. Perhaps it was already known in that region that Jesus was from Nazareth. If Jesus fits the profile of a (placebo/psychosomatic) healer and possessed strong oratorical skills, his fame may have spread as a local cult leader.
Furthermore, considering the criterion of embarrassment regarding the cross, wouldn’t this situation also be more probable under historicism? You state that Jesus was hung (crucified) by demons in the sublunary realm. But why was he hung by demons? What difference would it have made if he had died fighting them in a cosmic battle? What is the underlying motivation for this specific idea?
Additionally, wasn’t the concept of a celestial messiah quite marginal among the Jews? Looking specifically at just these two points, doesn’t historicism explain the data better?
Finally, I have some questions regarding how Jesus being a myth explains the theological evolution that culminated in the Messiah-God-atonement framework. Perhaps historicism is just simpler. At least to me, I believe it sheds better light on the origins and evolution of the movement.
I am curious to hear your thoughts on this matter.
You are late to the party.
(1) Jesus’s epithet as a Nazorian, on which an origin at Nazareth was invented, comes from scripture. It has no connection to the town. To catch up see the relevant section of The Historicity of Nazareth.
(2) The Argument from Embarrassment is invalid. The castration of Attis is more embarrassing, yet not historical. Likewise Romulus’s fratricide, Moses’s murder, Miriam’s cursing, Noah’s incest, and so on. This was all covered in the original study so you evidently need to read that (especially the elements ending chapter four and beginning chapter five, which answer all your questions). The crucified atoning savior comes from scripture and theology. It needed no reality to be invented and employed. Its useful reasons are explained in Hebrews 9 without need of a real thing.
I didn’t know Noah had an incestuous relationship. Wasn’t it Lot? What you’re referring to is described in literature as a slanderous myth fabricated by the Israelites against the Ammonites and Moabites. Regarding Moses killing an Egyptian, this story is interpreted in literature as a display of Moses’ heroic rage (zeal) to protect the Israelites. There weren’t short periods between the initial creation of the characters you mentioned and the emergence of their allegorical historicization. I don’t think there was enough time for Mark to create an allegorical historicization after Paul and for it to spread successfully. If I’m not mistaken, I’ve learned that the existence of the town of Nazareth in Galilee is archaeologically supported. As for your answer to my other question, I would like to say: Doesn’t it seem difficult to explain how all the outside observers and those opposed to the movement were deceived? Thank you very much for your answer.
It would be either Noah’s incest or other ignominy depending on how one reads the text.
Your interpretations are modern apologetics. The original stories were ignnominious (same as David’s adultery, Solomon’s many sins, and so on). This was standard in ancient religions of the time. The modern idea of heroes as pure and virtuous did not then exist. Their failures or humiliations were a stock trope. This was especially the case in Jewish lore where the suffering righteous hero was a standard trope (that’s why the Suffering Servant and Psalms 22 were eventually read as messianic, to assimilate the messiah to this concept). This is all covered in Historicity, with citations to scholarship.
On Nazareth, you didn’t follow the link. Read the linked article.
As for “Doesn’t it seem difficult to explain how all the outside observers and those opposed to the movement were deceived?” you haven’t identified which people you mean as deceived so as to answer that question.
For example, before the War, Jesus was just known by bible codes and dreams. The ancient standards by which to determine if a revelator was telling the truth were pious and irrational, not the epistemic standards we adhere to today. People commonly believed oracles and prophets, in all gullibility.
After the War, the early Gospels pursued the standard ubiquitous mystery cult practice of “outsiders fooled, insiders informed.” So Mark isn’t deceiving anyone except the very people he says he is, who aren’t his fellow believers. By the time we get to John, he is outright lying to his entire audience and using tactics like threatening them with hell if they don’t believe him. But that’s a hundred years later. So there are no witnesses to gainsay him.
And we see from immediate church fathers, they gullibly believed every ridiculous thing John invented. And they went on inventing more lies even more ridiculous. And people went on believing all that bullshit. Believing bullshit is a human universal defining all religious success in all lands across the Earth. It thus requires no explanation. It evinces itself and thus explains itself.
Dr. Carrier, you may not believe it, but I am an atheist. I know the story of Noah. What you’re saying cannot be put forward in the literature to refute the criterion of shame. Because the story of Ham and his cursed Canaan is a retrospectively constructed etiological myth to explain the negative relationship between the Canaanites and the Israelites. That’s what current literature says. There are academics who argue that David’s adultery may have been real. Because David’s existence was archaeologically proven in the 1990s. And this adultery story really seems to fit the criterion of shame. Religious and irrational people may believe in fictions built on minimal historical facts, but even for them, it’s difficult to believe in the existence of a completely fictional character in the later period. Almost all the characters before David, and characters like Daniel, Jonah, and Job, even if they are completely fictional, cannot be evaluated in the same category as Jesus in my opinion. Because Jesus is placed in a very specific time period, archaeological and historical data do not seriously contradict the existence of Jesus, and most of the characters around Jesus actually lived. Historical data actively conflicts with the fictional characters I’ve listed. But Jesus doesn’t seem like that kind of character. The John story is irrelevant, in my opinion. For example, I haven’t seen any corroboration by historians of that period of the character Lazarus and the story of the adulterous woman that John created. But this has nothing to do with Jesus. The fact that Jesus and those around him were corroborated by historians of that period makes it difficult for the myth theory.
I made no mention of the Ham theory. I am referring solely to the use of Hebrew wording to describe shameful events. It does not require some elaborate theory why incest occurred to determine from the vocabulary that incest occurred. The attempts to deny it occurred are modern anachronistic apologetics. Not the other way around. All the curse of Ham stuff if also late and irrelevant to this question. So it has no bearing here.
As for how Arguments from Embarrassment do and don’t work, as agreed by numerous experts (not just me), see my entire section on it in Proving History. I think you need to catch up to where I am before you can mount any usable response to that. Especially given the well-established expectation of a humiliated messiah in Jewish literature (both before and after Christianity, thus refuting any claim no one would think of this).
As for “what category Jesus is in” you have to construct a relevant class with real examples, and it has to be narrower than the class I already constructed—due to the Rule of Greater Knowledge, as explained in Proving History, and applied to exactly this kind of argument in ch. 6.5 of On the Historicity of Jesus, where I show what happens—and doesn’t happen—when you try to change what class you want Jesus to be in. You will need to understand how that works before you can challenge it as well.
Your alternative class needs to have a lot of members (anything less than six or so becomes statistically too vague to get solid conclusions like you want), and needs to not be overwhelmed by the class I already find (which has many more members, and much more secure membership). And the class I already find is 100% chock full of embarrassing fictional heroes. As do other alternative classes Jesus is in (from Socrates/Aesop and Wisdom Sages to Personal Saviors and Jewish Suffering Heroes and Religious Founders and Reformers). So your attempt to apply modern anachronistic ideas of hero mythography to this ancient context doesn’t work on the evidence we have.
Let’s say the motif of a suffering Messiah was common in those times. Even that is debatable, actually. But let’s continue. But why would the motif of a suffering Messiah be associated with the cross? If Paul fictionalized it, why would he say it’s shameful? What’s shameful about a heavenly and crucified Messiah? Furthermore, etiological slander myths already demonstrate that the passage used is fictional, so they cannot serve as a testing ground for the criterion of shame. If you include other Messiahs who lived at the same time as Jesus, or at the same time the fiction of Jesus emerged, the a priori possibility of Jesus might increase.
The dying and humiliated messiah expectation is not meaningfully debatable.
And there is no “cross” in the Bible. The word is consistently stake (stauron) or tree (xylon), which is wholly ambiguous as to the instrument. I cover this confusion in Historicity and Paradigm. It actually is a scriptural execution method (see Historicity, 4.pr), predicted even in variants in the pre-Christian versions at Qumran of Isaiah 53 and Psalms 22.
It was also a common theme (execution by exposure features in the civilization’s savior story of Prometheus, and involving a tree for Osiris, and by outright crucifixion in the stories of the demigod Ixion and the goddess Inanna). And it was a universally recognized method of supreme debasement fulfilling scriptural prediction and theological need.
The rest of your remark makes no relevant sense. They needed a dying messiah who reversed Satan’s arrogance with total submission. The most totally submitting way to die is by stake. Scriptures at the time literally predicted it would be such. And it was known then for gods and heroes to die in similar or even exactly that way, even triumphing because of it (Inanna and Osiris follow this narrative).
There is no need of a historical man to explain any of this. In fact, not having one is more convenient for the message, as a demonic cosmic sacrifice escapes all the political baggage of an actual convicted felon and the ensuing suspicion of insurrection.
Isn’t the idea of a king and an earthly messiah who will deliver the Jews from Roman persecution a mainstream one? Or am I wrong about this?
Why does the Torah condemn those who are crucified? Doesn’t this create difficulties in justifying the crucifixion/hanging? Couldn’t another form of death have been devised to facilitate the spread of the new religion or sect among the Jews?
When cult leaders are killed or bad things happen to the cult, it’s a common theme for cult members to reinterpret these events according to a higher purpose/cosmic plan. In my opinion, this theme seems to explain well the evolution of why Jesus is seen as both God, the Messiah, and the atoning sacrifice. Even if you argue otherwise, according to mainstream academics, a failed Messiah is an oxymoron for Jews. Because there was no such thing as a second coming for Jews. According to Jews, the Messiah would arrive and the matter would be settled without delay. To resolve this issue, Christians had to make Jesus both God, the Messiah, and the atoning sacrifice. They also constructed the theology of the second coming.
If two hypotheses are equal in terms of explanatory power, the more parsimonious one is chosen. Since I believe the historical Jesus hypothesis has better explanatory power, I place less importance on whether the other hypothesis is more parsimonious (and incidentally, I don’t think myth-making is more parsimonious either).
Finally, if Paul invented a heavenly and crucified messiah, why is he arguing about the verse in the Torah that says, “Everyone who is crucified on a tree is cursed by God”? What does that have to do with a heavenly messiah?
Depends on what you mean. That was “a” mainstream view and maybe even the most common view. But it demonstrably was not the only common view. Follow the link.
Yes. And scripture said the messiah must become accursed to redeem. This idea was already extant after the Maccabeean Martyrs’ crucifixion launched a heroic atonement lesson that was then perfectly adapted to Jesus.
But your logic makes no sense. Obviously myths and theologies will more likely adopt the most appropriate known mechanism for the purpose imagined, less likely invent a new one.
To the contrary, a Jewish sect is most likely going to think of a method known from Mishnah and Torah (which both command hanging on a tree or board, a xylon), because they are discovering this as a hidden message in scripture (they are using pesher as a technique, as Paul describes several times, e.g. Gal 3:1, Rom 16:25-26, etc.), and especially the variants they were reading that had piercing/hanging featured as expectations (Isaiah 53 and Psalms 22).
True. But this is a fallacy called denying the antecedent. “If historical, then logical” does not entail “If not historical, then not logical.” There are indeed plausible models of a historical Jesus. But also of a mythical Jesus. So the question is not whether we can come up with either. The question is whether the evidence overall is more likely on the alternative. Hence the peer reviewed studies finding it is more likely on the alternative. Not impossible or unlikely. Just less likely.
It is becoming evident you are way behind the curve here and don’t know what you are talking about. If you want to engage this theory informedly, you need to catch up on it. Start with On the Historicity of Jesus. Read it. Don’t skim it. Take it seriously and weigh all the evidence it presents not just some of it.
That’s vaguely true. You have to also account for the empirical prior probability, unexpected evidence, and scope as well as power. These all do reduce to your formulation (scope and unexpected evidence are governed by power and empirical priors affect parsimony), but in my experience, most people don’t know that, and thus erroneously ramify power and parsimony. It’s one of the most common mistakes made by conspiracy theorists and apologists.
What you believe is moot if your belief is contrary to reality. I extensively disproved this belief under peer review twelve years ago. You need to catch up. And no attempt to undo that has succeeded. Which you might also want to catch up on.
Likewise parsimony. Ibid.
Paul didn’t invent this. Peter did. As explained in the studies you haven’t read.
This tells me you definitely have no idea what my argument is. You are so far behind the curve you are lost.
The model I demonstrate to be more likely in OHJ is the belief, learned by revelation and hidden meanings in scripture, that this happened in the firmament, non on Earth, exactly as in the case of the murder and resurrection of Osiris. So Paul and Peter did indeed believe Jesus became incarnate, was crucified, and rose from the dead. They just place it somewhere cosmic, and not in Judea. Just like Satan’s war in heaven: a historical event they believed in (and which Jesus’s submission reversed and thus undid). But it didn’t happen on Earth. (And we know it never happened at all.)
Alright, Dr. Carrier. If you’ll allow me, I’d like to ask one last question. The Gospels speak of Jesus’s single coming and the completion of the work. This coming is so imminent that it will occur within the generation of Jesus and his apostles. Jesus here is similar to the Jewish Messiah. The Jewish Messiah will only come once. But because Jesus dies at the end of the Gospels, these passages are not confirmed, and Christians have constructed the theology of the second coming. Now, according to the mythological hypothesis, why is such a contradictory passage included in the text when the story of Jesus is historicized? According to the historicist hypothesis, since Jesus failed and the words in this passage are true, it could not be removed from the text, and the theology of the second coming was constructed.
Actually there was a popular two-messiah model. It is standard in the Talmud and there are indications of it in the Dead Sea Scrolls, and Christianity conforms to it too well to be a coincidence. I discuss this and the evidence for it in both Historicity and Paradigm and now, recently, in the Canadian American Theological Review.
In that model, the first messiah is the messiah “son of Joseph” who will be killed, and the second messiah, “son of David” will come and resurrect him; and the world will end soon after. Christianity combined these into a single messiah (Jesus is both of these men), to fulfill Daniel 9 and 12: a “messiah” must die and be resurrected some years after to inaugurate the end of the world. This is why Paul calls Jesus’s resurrection “the firstfruits” of the resurrection of everyone: it was a sign that the end was nigh. Paul thought it was thus due in his lifetime. When that didn’t happen, Christians had to retool the expectation (as all cults do when their end times predictions fail). And so Mark kicks the can down the road into the late first or early second century. Eventually John had to extend the timeline indefinitely by having one member of the first generation stay alive as long as God wants (John 21). Thus undoing what the first Christians actually taught and thought. That’s how we end up with modern Christianity.
As to your question of why the messiah had to die first, that was standard in pre-Christian thought already: as Daniel 9 explains, the messiah has to die to atone for all Israel’s sins so as to unlock the barrier to God ending the world and bringing paradise (Hebrews 9 carries this thought forward). The Dead Sea Scrolls are rife with expectations of a suffering or dying messiah as part of the necessary end-times timetable, by linking Daniel 9 to Isaiah 53 and other passages (like Zechariah 12:10).
So all of this already existed before Christians invented a guy to do the deed. Indeed, that is why they invented that guy: to make this preset machinery work.
And they might have believed it at first. Since it was only known by revelation and secret messages in scripture (Romans 16:25-26) they could have subconsciously convinced themselves this all cosmically happened. That’s why a man on Earth only was invented a lifetime later, precisely when no one could or would gainsay that new contrivance.
Dr. Carrier, thank you for answering my questions.
I mean, we don’t even stick that much to that trope, at least narrowly, in modern work. We have anti-heroes and anti-villains, we routinely write about heroes who make not just practical but moral mistakes. Last Jedi made my boy Luke into an attempted murderer because it made a point about mistakes and fear and cycles of violence and the complex nature of the Force. Both most recent Spidey movies hinge on Spider-Man making decisions that are morally complex because of his own fears and concerns. Lanterns deconstructs Hal Jordan, John Stewart and the entire idea of the Green Lantern Corps.
Most fictional characters are not Superman, meant to be moral paragons.
Thank you for your reply.
There is certainly some story to be told about how heroism changed as a consequence of Christianity. Already after it grew it was pushing moral perfection in its heroes, with failure at best only signaling a previous life of sin they heroically abandon.
That seems a concept of heroism unique to that religion and its influence and historical development. And may have to do with its development of increasingly hyper-purity theology (evident in the flesh-spirit debates among sects in the second and third century and all the weird knots in the fourth century to get Mary to be perfect and the newly-invented Trinity concept requiring Jesus to be perfect). It’s not inherent in Judaism. Nor Graeco-Romanism. Nor in other cultures (e.g. China, India, Persia).
Even the Gospels only give us a protean form of it in the theological and scriptural requirement that the savior uniquely must resist all temptation (and be thoroughly humiliated and defeated) to effect their mission (per Philp 2), forcing that to be his vector of heroism. But even then it’s restricted to Torah purity not general moral purity. That’s why Jesus can be a rather morally flawed and revolting person from our POV: those things were not considered bad then, because they aren’t controlled by any Torah rules.
But that created the template Christians then started insisting all heroes be pushed into. And so the modern anachronistic Christian idea of what a hero is was formed. It is now so altered by modern moral expectancies projected onto the past as to no longer be useful as a guideline for assessing ancient stories or thought.
Indeed, I suspect that, if someone investigated it, they’d find the same pattern you did for the values of curiosity, progress, etc. that the Renaissance brought back. Just like the Renaissance and Enlightenment put a Christian gloss over ideas that had been antithetical to Christianity for nearly a thousand years, and that gloss stuck because their output was so good that it was propagandistically convenient to claim it, so too, I suspect, did the rediscovery of classical storytelling elements bring about a resurgence of telling stories about flawed characters.
I do wonder how much Christian elements did shift our culture toward a more-hagiographic culture in our assumptions versus other factors.
Of course, I would also point out that, even early and pre-Renaissance, we do have stories in the English corpus that have morally complex characters. Chaucer and Beowulf alike do that. What I suspect may have happened is that the bulk of hagiographic propaganda, of pure and virtuous Mary Sues, did warp the proportional expectations.
There’s a thread from an older post that might be helpful to you.
Hi Jonathan. I just saw your comment. Thank you for the link you sent and for your reply.
> From a historical perspective, isn’t it more likely that the birth narratives in Matthew and Luke, while including the Bethlehem prophecy in the Old Testament, are an attempt to forcibly superimpose information about Nazareth? If Jesus were a legend, the Nazareth issue wouldn’t have existed from the beginning.
It might be if Matthew and Luke didn’t copy Mark verbatim. That would indicate they independently knew of the story that Jesus was from Nazareth.
But they DO copy Mark verbatim, and Mark puts Jesus in Nazareth. So the plausible alternative is just that the _Mark_ story was famous, so Matthew and Luke couldn’t put Jesus elsewhere — just like Peter Parker is from New York, so no one can just put Peter and Uncle Ben in Portland — even less so if someone is _also_ copying the Peter Parker comics verbatim, including references to New York.
Also, as Carrier noted in OHJ, Matthew references a scriptural prophecy claiming that Jesus would be a Nazarene (or a Nazorian, as Carrier has argued). But even if we grant _Nazarene_, it still means that Matthew, Mark, and Luke may have placed Jesus in Nazareth merely because of scripture.
So no, I don’t think the birth narratives in Matthew and Luke make Jesus more-probably historical.
I think this only pushes the issue one step backward. First, why did Mark use the town of Nazareth when making an allegorical historicization? He could have simply used Bethlehem. Second, if Mark was going to transform fiction into history, why didn’t he use the Bethlehem prophecy in the Old Testament? That would have been a good opportunity for him. Furthermore, in my opinion, Matthew’s wordplay in the Old Testament regarding Nazareth stems not from the fictional town of Nazareth, but from Matthew’s predicament. The reason Matthew’s Gospel is so close to the Jewish people is that Matthew knew the prophecies in the Old Testament better than at least the other Gospel writers. Mark, on the other hand, seems to be unaware of or ignoring the prophecies in the Old Testament.
Because Scripture said he would be a Nazorian. And Nazareth is the closest town to pick to sound like that (though the fact that they are not the same word is the evidence that Mark is getting this from scripture and forcing a fit with the town). See the link I provided. It explains in detail.
Scripture also said the savior would come from Galilee. So Mark needed some town in Galilee to plant Jesus at. It’s possible that was Capernaum and Mark 1:9 is an interpolation. But if Mark 1:9 is authentic, it is reifying Nazorian. This is why the contradictory prophecies that the messiah would hail from Galilee and Bethlehem had to be reconciled in Matthew as soon as Matthew invented a birth. Mark avoids the birth and thus never has to explain a prediction of birth. He just has Jesus start his ministry in Galilee as scripture said (Isaiah 9).
Mark perfectly employs not only many scriptural sources, but is even using Aramaic targums. Matthew actually identifies the scriptures Mark was using, so even Matthew knew Mark knew the scriptures well. Matthew is the one making clearer to less observant people what Mark was doing. But Matthew was also kind of dumb. Unlike Mark, he did not understand how Hebrew poetry worked in creating repetition, so Matthew mistook the donkey prophecy for saying the savior would ride on both an adult donkey and a baby donkey simultaneously (a ridiculous idea that isn’t physically plausible, yet that’s what Matthew has Jesus do); Mark correctly understood the scripture was just saying the same thing twice and not saying there were two donkeys.
So your theory of Matthew and Mark is well refuted.
Alright, Dr. Carrier. I disagree with your opinion, but thank you for your response.
Putting aside the Nazorian point:
Fictional characters need to come from somewhere. Whether you acknowledge that or not.
If you’re telling a historicizing narrative, you will likely mention where someone comes from.
You’ll notice Mark is pretty vague, saying “In those days Jesus came from Nazareth in Galilee and was baptized by John in the Jordan”. No birth narrative at all. I don’t know if the Greek has a different valence, but “come from” doesn’t even have to mean “born in”. “The Nazarene” could easily mean “was from Nazareth as a home”. Which is… not shocking.
This is a countercultural cult that is emphasizing humble origins. That could be a result of it coming from a guy who himself was humble, or from a guy who was a grifter who pretended that way, or from a guy who wasn’t and was rewritten to not be, or from a mythical character later historicized.
The likelihood that a mythical character described as human will come from somewhere is 100%. We have the hometowns of countless fictional characters, and many of them have poignant and interesting hometowns. Indeed, saying that your guy came from a small place and yet look how remarkable he became is pretty good propaganda.
This is such weak tea that the fact that people pretend it’s dispositive is so telling. It proves the evidence sucks.
While not strong proof, in my opinion it serves as evidence (as a supporting argument). Thank you for your response.
So if it’s not strong proof, it must stand against other proofs, like, say, Paul being super vague about where anything about the guy despite being able to gather immediate second-hand data from Jesus’ right-hand man if Jesus were real.
But I just don’t think it’s proof at all. Once you eliminate the criterion of embarrassment and other nonsense, Jesus coming from Nazareth in fiction is as expected under mythicism as under historicism. For example, if Nazareth was indeed a town that was starting to be known as a place for rabbis to arise, then it both makes sense that a guy would come from there or claim to, and that someone making up a backstory later would do it. It’s as unsurprising as someone making a lawyer have a New York Jewish background in fiction. I don’t even see where you think you’re getting the differential probability here.
If even the Mandaeans mention Jesus, how can he be a myth? Dr. Carrier, you’re confusing epistemological ambiguity with ontological ambiguity. Researchers are concerned with his epistemology, not his ontology. Why didn’t early Talmudic writers, the pagan philosopher Celsus, and the Mandaeans expose Jesus as a myth? If Jesus is a myth, why wasn’t he constructed within a mythological timeframe, but rather within a very specific time period? If Jesus is a myth, how can the evolution of messianic-God-atonement theology be explained? If Jesus is a myth, how did this myth movement manage to deceive even outside observers, how was it so successful? If Jesus is a myth, why do Matthew and Luke insert extra information about Nazareth in the birth story, in addition to the Bethlehem prophecy? If he were a myth, they would only mention Bethlehem, which is again a coincidence for mythologizing. The motivation of the movement is again a loophole for mythologizing. Even if the Jews created this character because of Roman persecution, why didn’t they associate Jesus with the Babylonian exile? The fact that the idea of a heavenly messiah is a marginal concept is another loophole in mythologization. Underneath mythologization, there seems to be no motivation for fabricating the crucifixion of Jesus.
Mandaean material is all hundreds of years later. It has no use as a source here.
The rest of your questions were all addressed in the original study.
Richard,
This dispute reminds me of the dying messiah misunderstanding; where critics think it’s all or nothing. They’re unable to see it’s
Either:
1) The gospels are mythographic fictions
or,
2) They might contain historical facts within the fiction, but we can’t reliably tell which is which.
Your book’s argument only depends on the second, even though you can defend the first. But they can’t wrap their heads around the fact that even you agree in the published arguments there could be historical facts in the gospels.
It made me think of Dale Allison’s work. As you know, he’s super mainstream and widely hailed among scholars as among the best living today. And his books are filled with agnosticism about the Gospels (even while he himself still affirms historical facts to be found within them). It’s just so dishonest for anyone (like McGrath) to pretend otherwise.
Relatedly, I’m not sure if you’ve ever addressed Dale Allison’s argument from “the gist”. (found in several places, but most fully in Constructing Jesus, 2010, chapter 1). That we can form a vague, general impression of what Jesus was like that’s basically more or less accurate.
It’s quite a read. It’s a great book. But an interesting logic problem. He simultaneously affirms every specific gospel episode is open to doubt; that we are unable to authenticate to high confidence ANY particular saying, deed, or story, but that somehow, someway, enough of these uncertain stories and particulars all share enough of the same features so as to clue us in to reliable general features and gist about the historical Jesus.
I think the main problem is the second: a universal human incompetence (demonstrated at the neurological level) at distinguishing between “evidence against” and “insufficient evidence for,” therefore confusing “we can’t know the thing” with “the thing is false.”
On the “gist” argument I refuted that field-wide in chapter five of Proving History. Allison is using the Third Quest criteria of authenticity that the field is now declaring ineffective rubbish to be abandoned. Even Allison is showing doubts of it in Constructing but relies on some of them anyway, reluctantly. So the field itself is starting to no longer believe results like his can be sustained. And the key problem is that Allison outright says his “gist” is presumptive: he starts with the assumption that there is a gist to find, and then goes looking for it. But the assumption is then defining what counts, so it’s circular (see in Proving History my discussion of the Criterion of Characteristic Jesus and the Criterion Oral Preservability, where I pointed out the problem with this approach in 2012).
That the method is defective is most proved by it getting entirely contradictory results with equal confidence. See my explanation of why in my debate with Bermejo-Rubio. The method is ultimately circular: if you start with the assumption that gist is history, so you can decide which facts are facts or myth by whether it conforms to your expected gist, you can make any figure historical. The method would make Hercules and Zeus historical. It’s useless.
That’s actually what Crossley and Keith are reacting to. It’s the very thing they describe as “disillusioning” them. They are just a hair away from where we are already.
I’m in my 50s and have been an atheist from about the age of 10 (previously raised catholic…). Up to my early 40s I just made the same lazy assumption as everyone else – that there was a ‘historical’ (read: non-magical/non-gospel) Jesus figure upon whom the gospels were based. Every atheist I knew (and that was nearly everyone I knew, here in the UK…) assumed the same. We rejected the miracles and the magic, dismissing them as embellishments that served a purpose for the authors, and around which early christianity then grew. But then in my early 40s I rather randomly decided that this was a very poor way to explain the extant texts of the NT and so I asked – if we start with what we’ve actually *got*, a set of texts, and then ask what’s the best explanation for them, then I quickly saw that there was no need for a ‘historical’ jesus. You can just invent the guy along with what he supposedly said and did.
I mean, since everything he supposedly said and did was invented, why base those inventions on a real guy? Furthermore, it would actually be harder to do that because either the guy himself or anyone who had known him could have credibly contradicted the stories you’d carefully crafted. Invent a guy wholesale and there’s no-one to do that. Much easier and much less risk of contradiction. Mythicism then (I didn’t learn the term for a few years hence…) became my new position; why should I believe some parts of what’s in the gospels as true, but not others? How do you bracket those things anyway? Simpler and more rational to bracket everything together as falsehood and invention, and abandon the unnecessary assumptions altogether.
Well spotted.
This is actually indeed an argument I make in chapter 6.7 of Historicity:
I’m starting to think your framing of a paradigm is wrong. This debate isn’t an academic debate, even though the participants want to give it that appearance. It’s actually a political debate (what other academic field has “liberal” and “conservative” scholars?), which requires a political framing.
It’s not a new paradigm, it’s the overton window shifting.
It’s moving in the mythicist direction, but mythicism is still outside the overton window. To be taken seriously you have to say that Jesus certainly existed (or at least not question it).
But we’re getting to the point where there’s no more shift to make without acknowledging that it’s possible that he didn’t exist. That will be the big thing to look for next, when scholars feel free to say something even as milk toast as “Jesus probably existed, and if he did…” that implies that Jesus might not have existed.
You’re trying to participate in an academic discussion that doesn’t actually exist. Just like academic political science and philosophy have essentially no impact on actual politics, academic works on this question have basically zero impact on what people actually believe about it.
Those are related. You can’t move to a new paradigm without moving the Overton window, but the latter is not politics but psychology. The former is epistemology.
Or rather, they are ignoring the academic discussion I have initiated. The reasons for which are psychological, not epistemological.
That being true changes nothing about the facts and logic of the matter. And only on a foundation of the facts and logic of the matter can anything change. The psychology getting in the way is simply subverting sound epistemological reasoning. Which leads to a valid critique of Jesus studies as barely a legitimate academic field. It has more in common with astrology than, say, Roman history. Eventually, as with all paradigm shifts (as with Moses and the Patriarchs—because we went through all this before), new blood will overtake the old, dogmas was decline, and the politics of defamation and blacklisting and ignoring will be ground under by scholars who care more about the truth than dogma or prestige.
What I document here today is that the Overton Window is already moving, and has moved quite a lot, since my first study. Which is evidence of its impact. The resistance only conceals the decaying foundations that that resistance is clinging to. As happened with Moses and the Patriarchs.
I just read Doubting Jesus’ Resurrection by Kris Komarnitsky (you endorsed the book) and there is something he says early in chapter 1 that seems completely wrong to me: Paul saying Jesus raised from the dead implies an empty tomb belief: ”Some say that the buried-raised sequence mentioned by Paul – “and that he was buried, and that he was raised” (1 Cor 15:4) – implies a discovered empty tomb. Actually, it only implies the belief in an empty tomb or empty burial location”. I don’t think it even implies that. Paul never says Jesus’ body was put on a tomb, let alone that the tomb was empty before him being put there. Paul only says Jesus was buried, which is compatible with a shallow grave and a cemetery for the condemned. What do you think?
That is debatable. But it is debated. It comes up in some of the chapters in Empty Tomb (e.g. Peter Kirby, “The Case against the Empty Tomb, 233–60). Komaritsky himself challenges it (see Komarnitsky, Doubting, pp. 10–47).
It is true the Greek is ambiguous. But IMO, if we take the reference to a real historical event, it will always have been understood as a tomb burial (as no other kind would follow execution; the graveyard for the condemned had to be a tomb complex owned by the Sanhedren, not a graveyard, because of the need of secondary burial and turnover), unless confusion arose later from Gentiles not knowing how Jewish burial custom worked. Whereas if we take the reference to a cosmic event, that assumption no longer attaches (Adam was buried in the soil of Paradise in the 3rd heaven, for example, and Jesus’s burial, probably in the firmament, which meant most likely a sky garden or literally on the Moon, could have been similar).
But would jesus’ body have been put on an individual tomb only for himself or would he share the space with other bodies? Because in the second scenario you cannnot have an empty tomb.
Semantically, true.
These are two different questions though. Paul never mentions an empty tomb. And Mark (who invented it) never calls it an “empty” tomb. He just says Jesus wasn’t where they laid him. Many scholars take this to be a description of the mass criminal tomb, and that is why the “boy” points to a specific arcosolia as empty, not the whole tomb as empty.
Later Gospels invent the idea of this being Joseph’s tomb with no one else in it (possible, as I explain in TET, “Burial,” but not likely; more likely a late legendary embellishment).
So, for interpreting Paul (or even Mark), the mass tomb is consistent and thus not an issue. It only raises conflict in later embellishments of the legend that are so far removed from the original as to be useless as history.
It is also a separate question to ask whether this could have caused confusion (as an explanation for how they lost track of the body) in the event Jesus existed. That’s also possible. There are even easier ways that could happen though (hence my chapter on Burial in TET). And of course I argue (in “Spiritual Body,” Ibid.) that the corpse of Jesus would not have even been relevant to Paul’s understanding of resurrection, so it didn’t even have to be missing (and lo, he never says it was). That holds whether Jesus existed or not. The absence of any conflict or concern over where the body went in Acts tells us no such concern existed. Which supports the notion of Paul even if Jesus existed: no one preached at that time that Jesus left the tomb. That’s a post-war myth. Before that, if Jesus existed, people were saying he swapped bodies, not rose in the dead one, which they regarded as a filthy disposable suit, not the man himself.
I read your section on The Empty Tomb about the burial and found it great. Kris Komarnitsky argues in Doubting Jesus’ Resurrection that when Paul mentions the three days prophecy in 1 cor 15 it’s about psalm 16. I’m not convinced. It requires the lxx (the hebrew text only says that god wouldn’t allow his faithful to see the pit, Jesus was killed and saw the pit, it says nothing about not seeing corruption) and the additional info that bodies couldn’t be identified after the third day because of the departing of the spirit, but Paul says on the third day. So he has to argue that the tradition was simplified to ”on the third day”. Jonah 1:17, on the other hand, is mentioned by both matthew and luke and the three days/night are obvioulsy there. It doesn’t require Kris’ belief that Paul thought that Jesus’ body was transformed instead of rotting either. What do you think?
If your question is “Where is Paul reading ‘third day’ out of scripture?” the answer is almost certainly a pesher—that is, it is not a single passage, but a reading that “comes out of” linking up disparate passages.
This is why most scholars say it comes from Hosea 6:2. They don’t mean Peter (and it would be Peter, not Paul) read Hosea 6:2 and from that alone had the inspired thought that Jesus must therefore have been dead three days (counting inclusively was the cultural norm in Judaism then). They mean that Hosea 6:2 was “reinterpreted” in light of disparate other passages Peter was “inspired” by the Holy Spirit to read as unlocking the mystery behind Hosea 6:2 (basically just as we see happening in all the pesher literature at Qumran).
I covered this in detail in The Empty Tomb but much of that I now summarize in Why Did Mark Invent an Empty Tomb? which paints a possible pesher pathway to the result. We can’t know the actual pathway Peter used because this method is lunacy and therefore not reliably reverse engineered. But it’s as plausible as any given the data available.
One may wonder, where does Jesus’s socialist messaging come from, if not from the historical Jesus himself? The whole lord’s supper story in Paul is also odd:
Who is he saying this to? Who’s the audience? With a celestial understanding this story makes less sense.
That’s two questions.
First, socialism was already afire in counter-cultural Judaism of the time, and thus already a thing Jews were looking for ways and mouthpieces to promote (see Jubilees and the Qumran Community Rule as examples). So you didn’t need any mascot for it to actually exist (Jubilees itself is attributed to mythical annunciators and recipients, so fabricating mascots was already standard).
Second, the text of 1 Cor 11:23-25 is clearly spoken to all future Christians and not just a few people present (and thus none are mentioned as present). This is similar to the foods vision assigned to Peter in Acts: the recipient is the revelator (Paul, Peter), and the intended audience (the “you”) is all future Christians as a corporate entity.
See my summary of the many studies proving this in Paradigm (pp. 44–49).
Another point Richard frequently makes is that just saying “Where did an idea come from” can’t prove a historical Jesus. Non-Jesus people come up with ideas, and innovations. Indeed, even under historicism, Peter had to be massively innovative, because most historicist theories have the cult change after their messiah fails.
So the answer would be, under mythicism, the cult. Likely Peter or the twelve, but maybe could have been from an early adopter (or adopters) who saw they were discussing countercultural ideas and then thought that a commune was a good idea. Nothing prevents a rabbi named Peter from proposing a socialist value system any more than a rabbi named Yeshua.
The only thing you can’t easily say is that Paul made it up, and even then, it’s possible Paul innovated here too and we just don’t have the breadcrumbs to show it. The only thing you can conclude is that anything in Paul that he’s not having to argue for strenuously is likely something the cult was primed to accept. Anyone who knows cults knows that doesn’t mean that innovation is impossible.
Finally, I finished reading “The obsolete paradigm of a historical Jesus.”
It is an interesting work, but I have one minor complaint. I think you underestimated one astonishing fact. The fact that no one remembers where the empty tomb was located. That is highly unlikely, and it was one of the reasons I abandoned the idea of a historical Jesus even before I read all the books you have written. It started, of course, with Doherty’s “The Jesus Puzzle: Did Christianity Begin with a Mythical Christ?”
Back to the main argument: If there was a historical Jesus and if he was buried in a tomb, there is a near-zero probability that the location of the tomb was forgotten.
Why is the probability so low? Well, do you remember where Adolf Hitler was buried? You won’t know, because nobody knows. The Soviets have taken plenty of precautions to make it impossible to know where his grave is. There was only one man who knew, and he took his knowledge into his grave.
Why?
Because, before the time of the internet, if you had a hero and wanted to meet other people with the same interest, there was one way to find those people. Say, for example, you think that Jimi Hendrix was the greatest guitarist of all time or that Elvis Presley truly was the king. What would you do to find like-minded people? Easy: you would go to their graves on the day of their death. There you would find plenty of people who love Jimi Hendrix or Elvis Presley. That was precisely the point of why the Soviets made the location of Hitler’s grave unknown. Imagine the location is known; on the day of his death or the day of his birth, you would find Nazis all around the grave, worshipping their idol. And everyone attracted to Nazism would go there. It would be the place to recruit new members to the Nazi movement. Who wants this to happen?
We do not know where Osama bin Laden was buried, or Saddam Hussein, for the very same reason. Jimi Hendrix and Elvis Presley died a long time ago; go to their graves on the day of their deaths, and you will find numerous fans. It is not likely that the location of their graves will get lost, not in a hundred years.
So, if there was a Jesus from Galilee, and he was buried in a tomb, how likely would it be that the location of his grave gets lost? Remember: the Jews at that time until today have a grave cult. Jewish graves will never be destroyed by Jews. Such a grave is of grave importance (pun intended). Today, the supposed tomb of Jesus is the site of the greatest religious significance. The problem is that there are two such sites because the supposed tomb was “discovered” centuries later through visions.
But consider how important the tomb—especially an empty one—must have been at that time. If the story of Joseph of Arimathea is not a fabrication, he would hardly have forgotten the location of his family tomb. The same applies to Jesus’ followers.
If such a tomb existed, the probability that it would have been forgotten is close to zero.
There is a counterargument to this that must be considered: When the Romans crucified someone for high treason, they generally denied them a proper burial. Instead, the remains were thrown into a mass grave. Why did the Romans crucify Jesus? For high treason—because he allegedly claimed to be the King of Judea.
If one assumes that there was a historical Jesus, then one must also assume that he was most likely buried in a mass grave. The story of the tomb must have been a later fabrication. In either case, it does not look good for Christianity.
Especially when you defend a historical Jesus, you must acknowledge that many stories from the NT were fabricated later. That’s something you have already written about: the more you defend a historical Jesus, the more you must assume that many of the stories were later inventions.
How likely is it that there was a historical Jesus and that the empty tomb was invented? The chance that there was an empty tomb is near zero. The likelihood that the story was invented is very high, given all we know about humans and the latest discoveries of biblical scholars. For example, Jesus was crucified between two thieves. But theft was not punished by crucifixion. This is just another literary allusion to a passage from the OT.
If we are generous, we could give it a 50:50 chance that there was a historical Jesus and that that was the reason no one remembered the location of his grave. If we add this to your arguments, that would halve the likelihood that a historical Jesus existed. Add to this that of most historical individuals that existed, numerous people know the day of their birth, the day of their death, and the location of their grave. These details are not mentioned in the gospels. Instead, we have some vague stories that contradict each other.
I abandoned that argument decades ago.
Remember, before I became an expert in historicity, I was one of the world’s leading experts in resurrection apologetics. So I was well familiar with the “no veneration” argument. What I learned in addressing that is a series of facts that removes the empty tomb from being relevant:
(1) the first Christians (as attested by Paul) did not believe in an empty tomb, that was invented by Mark as an allegory borrowing the literary motif of empty tombs from other religious myths and novels of the time; instead they believed the corpse stays behind as an empty shell and the risen occupy a new body (I extensively proved this in a whole chapter on it in The Empty Tomb, in 2005);
(2) even if they did believe there was one, there is no evidence that belief was based on any actual knowledge of one: most Christians lived nowhere near the region and couldn’t query any confusion that may have actually existed about where the body ended up, as we know it would have ended up in a mass tomb complex owned by the court (I have a whole chapter proving this in that same anthology), and thus losing track of where it was (by accident or intention) is well in play (because there was no way anyone in the know could prove any body by then was Jesus, even if they personally were sure it was);
(3) Jerusalem was destroyed in 70 and forcibly uninhabited for sixty years after, so even if they had venerated a known tomb or loculus, that knowledge would have been lost even by the time Mark composed, much less by the time we have any substantive Christian communications a century later;
and finally (4) the first Christians expected the world to end “any day now” and thus would have not had any motive to venerate shrines (they would see them as useless offal soon to be dissolved by God) nor means (the criminal graveyard was policed against such untoward honors), and by the time they realized the world wasn’t ending soon and thus maybe they should start establishing monuments, the city was in ruins and no one lived there anymore. That’s why no Christian monuments of any kind were established until after the Bar Kochba revolt a hundred years later.
So the tomb is of no use to the historicity question. In Bayesian terms, Christians losing track of it is —> 100% even if Jesus existed and so no likelihood ratio from this can decrease the probability of historicity. Any effect disappears below rounding error. So it’s unusable.
And yet, all that said, I did in fact cover this in my original study. It’s in On the Historicity of Jesus (2014), 369–71 (“Both historicists and mythicists can adduce equally plausible explanations of it (though only by assuming the first Christians were not preaching an empty tomb)”).
There is just one thing I don’t understand: why would Paul invent Jesus before the destruction of the Temple? What did that offer Judaism? The Temple was still standing.
Like the Qumran sect, the original Christian cult is an anti-temple cult precisely because it was still standing (e.g. Hebrews 9 answers your question directly). When it fell that only created a new marketing angle. But it was very specifically trying to eliminate the role of the temple in Jewish religion and politics when it began (just as the Qumran sect aimed to do a generation or century before).
For details of this, and why it exactly fits the context, see Elements 23–29 in Chapter 5 of On the Historicity of Jesus, which are all about this.
Nina Livesey says that Paul’s letters appeared as a reaction to the Acts of the Apostles. Paul did not exist. But it’s strange, because Paul has very few stories about Jesus, while in Acts there is already a developed story. It seems that the apostle Paul himself does not know Jesus. But is he fictional? There were no Christians who would claim that Jesus is cosmic. And what actually happened?! And I don’t know! There is no logic in all these stories. And it is not clear how they appeared.
That’s a good point. There is some convolution in Livesey’s particular position. Most invented-Paul theorists see Acts as a reaction to Marcion’s Gospel and Letters rather than the other way around. She imagines Acts as an early second century fiction someone wrote that Marcion then forged the letters to riff on. But this sets aside the stylistic congruities between Acts and Luke and has the order of their production backwards and complicates a lot else. It’s an awkward theory. To be fair, she only advances it as possible, not certain. But still.
Your idea that Christianity was invented by Paul, or at least that the Gospels were created on the basis of his ideas—that theory is good, but there is one thing I don’t understand. How could Christianity have begun, and the movement, simply on stories about a fictional hero? Would people in Israel really not have said, “This never happened, nobody knows him”? Besides, there were the Ebionites, who did not like Paul. If Paul invented everything, where did the community in Jerusalem come from, where did the Ebionites come from? More likely this is a spontaneous history. But if such a person did exist, it is hard to imagine that he could have been so valued that he was completely slandered. I don’t understand how this insane religion ever appeared at all. That is the most important question. Everything there is myth if you read it. Suppose in Acts a certain James appears for the first time. But he is the brother of John. In Paul he is also there, simply an apostle, simply the brother of the Lord. Like the other brothers. But in the Gospels the one who reads Paul thinks that this is a real brother! Even the brother did not exist, and he was invented. Even the story with the tomb is a reworked story of Paul’s imprisonment. Also an enclosed space. Also an angel. Also white colors. Also they don’t recognize him. Also women meet him, also Mary. Either John reworked the story with the paralytic at the pool of Bethesda. Or the way Jesus called a woman a dog, John reworked into the story with the well. These people lied totally, and did not fear God, that he would punish them for such inventions.
I have never said this. I have repeatedly said the opposite. For example, Paul is a heretical transformer, not the originator, of Christianity; and not all Gospels are on his side: Matthew is against Paul and elaborately written to undo his influence.
It didn’t. You evidently don’t know what my theory is. Who told you it was this then? Because now you know they lied to you and thus are liars. So you now know never to trust anything they say again. Which may be the most useful thing you might learn today.
But you can also learn the truth and undo the lies you were told by starting with How Did Christianity Switch to a Historical Jesus? But if you really care to understand my theory, you are going to have to actually read it. Start with Jesus from Outer Space unless you want all the academic detail (where all the evidence is cited and precision maintained) then you will want to start with the actual peer reviewed study On the Historicity of Jesus. Which incidentally agrees with you that it can’t have started that way (see pp. 54–55).
The rest of your comment is all off the rails because it is based on some lie someone told you about what I actually argue. So you need to rewind and start over with correct information.